China on track to surpass US in race to return humans to the Moon

Plans to land humans on the Moon with the Artemis III mission have been delayed while China's rival program is progressing rapidly without any significant setbacks or delays.

Will the next person on the moon speak English or Mandarin? In all, 12 Americans walked on the lunar surface between 1969 and 1972. Now, both the US and China are preparing to send humans back there this decade.

This image taken at the Beijing Aerospace Control Center (BACC) on June 2, 2024 shows the Chang'e-6 spacecraft landing on the far side of the Moon. (Photo: THX/TTXVN).

However, the US lunar program has been delayed, in part because the spacesuits and lunar landing vehicles are not yet ready. Meanwhile, China has committed to sending astronauts to the moon by 2030 – and it has a history of sticking to its timelines.

Just a few years ago, such a scenario would have been unthinkable. But now, the real possibility that China could beat the US in a space race is quite clear . So who will get back there first, and does it really matter?

The goals of the two space powers

NASA's lunar program is called Artemis . The US has teamed up with international and commercial partners to share the costs. NASA has outlined a plan to return Americans to the Moon in three missions.

In November 2022, NASA launched the Orion spacecraft on an empty orbit around the Moon. This is the Artemis I mission.

Artemis II, scheduled for late 2025, is similar to Artemis I, but this time the Orion will carry four astronauts. They won't land, which will be the job for Artemis III. On the third mission, NASA will send the first man and woman to the surface of the Moon. While their identities have yet to be announced, one of them will be the first person of color to set foot on the Moon.

Artemis III was scheduled to launch in 2026, but a December 2023 assessment gave a one-in-three chance that it wouldn't launch until February 2028. 

Artemis III astronauts will use SpaceX's Starship to land on the Moon. (Graphic image: NASA).

Meanwhile, China's space program appears to be moving forward rapidly, without any significant setbacks or delays. In April of this year, Chinese space officials announced that the country was on track to send astronauts to the moon by 2030.

It's an extraordinary trajectory for a country that only sent its first astronaut into space in 2003. China has been operating space stations since 2011 and has achieved important, challenging milestones through its Chang'e lunar exploration program.

These robotic missions have brought back samples from the surface, including from the 'dark side' of the Moon. They have tested technology that could be crucial for a human landing. The next mission will land at the Moon's south pole, an area of ​​great interest because of the presence of water ice in craters there.

Water could be used to sustain life on a lunar base and extracted for hydrogen to be used as rocket fuel. Producing rocket fuel on the moon would be cheaper than bringing it from Earth, and could help support further space exploration missions. It is for these reasons that Artemis III will land at the south pole, which is also the site of planned permanent bases established by the US and China.

On September 28, 2024, China unveiled its spacesuit for moonwalkers, or "selenauts ." The suit is designed to protect the wearer from extreme temperature changes and unfiltered solar radiation. It is lightweight and flexible.

China is leading?

But is this a sign that China has overtaken the US in one aspect of the race to the Moon? The company that makes the Artemis Moon suit, Axiom Space, is currently having to modify some details of the reference design that NASA provided them.

The lander that will take American astronauts from lunar orbit to the surface has also been delayed . Elon Musk's SpaceX has been awarded a contract to build the vehicle in 2021. It is based on SpaceX's Starship, which consists of a 50m-long spacecraft launched on the most powerful rocket ever built.

Starship can't fly directly to the moon. It must first refuel in Earth orbit (using other Starships to act as 'tankers' ). SpaceX needs to demonstrate the ability to refuel and conduct a test landing on the moon without a crew before Artemis III can proceed.

Additionally, during the Artemis I mission, Orion's heat shield was significantly damaged as the spacecraft made its high-temperature re-entry through Earth's atmosphere. NASA engineers have been working to find a solution ahead of the Artemis II mission.

SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket carrying the Odysseus spacecraft for Mission "IM-1" lifts off from the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida, the US, on February 15, 2024. (Photo: AFP/VNA).

Some critics have argued that Artemis is too complex, citing the complex process of getting astronauts and lunar landers into lunar orbit, the large number of commercial partners working independently, and the number of Starship launches required. It would take between four and 15 Starship flights to complete the Artemis III refueling process.

Former NASA administrator Michael Griffin has advocated a simpler strategy, essentially the same as how China hopes to accomplish its moon landing. His vision is for NASA to rely on traditional commercial partners like Boeing, rather than 'newcomers' like SpaceX.

However, simple does not necessarily mean better or cheaper. The Apollo program was simpler but cost nearly three times as much as Artemis. SpaceX has been more successful and more cost-effective than Boeing in flying crews to the International Space Station.