Climate change scenario: More than 1/3 of the Mekong Delta is flooded

According to the Minister of Natural Resources and Environment Pham Khoi Nguyen, in the past 50 years, the average temperature in Vietnam has increased by about 0.5-0.7 ^o C, the sea level has risen about 20cm. The impacts of climate change (climate change) on the natural disasters, storms and droughts are increasingly serious.

According to Minister Pham Khoi Nguyen, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment will continue to update climate change scenarios, especially sea level rise, to provide more complete information for ministries, branches and localities to implement action plans. , effectively implement the national target program to respond to climate change.

Source: Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment)

Appears many anomalies

According to experts, the scenario of ' climate change, sea level rise ', the expression of climate change and sea level rise in Vietnam through the analysis of climate data shows the changes of climate factors and sea level. There are some remarkable points: the average annual temperature of the last four decades (1961-2000) was higher than the average of the previous three decades (1931-1960).

In some places like Hanoi, Da Nang and Ho Chi Minh City, the annual average temperature of the 1991-2000 decade is higher than the average of the 1931-1940 decade at Hanoi levels of 0.8 ^o C, Da Nang 0 , 4 ^o C and Ho Chi Minh City 0,6 ^o C. In 2007 alone, the average temperature in all three places was higher than the average of the 1931-1940 period from 0.8-1.3 ^o C and high. more than the 1991-2000 decade was 0.4-0.5 ^o C.

Sea level rise scenarios

* TP.HCM: when the sea level rises 65cm, the range is 128km ² (6%); rising 75cm, flooding 204km ² (10%); 100cm rise, flooded 473km ² (23%).

* Mekong Delta: 65cm rise, flooded 5.133km ² (12.8%); 75cm rise, flooding 7,580km ² (19%); 100cm rise, flooding 15,116 km ² (37.8%).

Develop an action plan

Deputy Prime Minister Hoang Trung Hai has approved the proposal of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment to use the climate change scenarios as a basis for building solutions to respond to climate change.Deputy Prime Minister assigned the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment to announce climate change scenarios in Vietnam so that ministries, branches and localities develop action plans to respond to climate change.

According to Minister Pham Khoi Nguyen, this scenario is only the initial research result, by the end of 2010, the update of climate change scenarios will be completed and by 2015 continue to update climate change scenarios, especially sea ​​level rise for periods up to 2100.

According to experts, the number of cold air waves affecting Vietnam has decreased markedly in the past two decades. However, anomalous manifestations appear more often, particularly the cold and cold cold spell lasting 38 days in January and February 2008. For storms, in recent years, there is a stronger intensity, the trajectory of storms has signs of gradually shifting to the south and the season of storm ending later, especially many storms with more unusual paths.

Experts' calculations also showed that the total annual rainfall and rainfall in the rainy season in all climatic regions of our country increased. For the whole country, the annual rainfall at the end of the 21st century increased by 5% compared to the period of 1980-1999. Particularly in the four regions in the Northern region, the annual rainfall may increase by 5-10% compared to the period of 1980-1999.

New is the original orientation!

Under the sea level rise scenario, in the middle of the 21st century, the sea level may rise by 28-33cm, by the end of the 21st century, the sea level will increase by 65-100cm compared to the period of 1980-1999.

According to the leadership of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, the goal of building climate change and sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam is to provide basic information on the future trend of climate change and sea level rise of Vietnam, corresponding to the Different scenarios of global socio-economic development lead to different rates of greenhouse gas emissions.

Accordingly, the criteria for selecting calculation methods to build climate change and sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam include: the reliability of the global climate change scenario; details of climate change scenarios, inheritance, topicality of scenarios, local suitability, completeness of scenarios and ability to actively update.

The locality will determine the amount of damage

According to the director of the Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment Tran Thuc, the current scenario is not detailed in places such as the Mekong Delta, Ho Chi Minh City, how many houses, households, rice fields, crops . . will be submerged when sea level rises 65cm or 75cm. The scenario only identifies the data as when the sea level rises 65cm, the extent of flooding in HCMC area is how many square kilometers. Similarly, the Mekong Delta region has only been able to determine when the sea level rises by 65cm, 75cm or 100cm, how many square kilometers will be flooded.

Still according to Mr. Thuc, the provinces and localities themselves are the units that closely grasp the issues such as the number of households, affected houses, the number of areas of crops and water rice threatened. He said that based on the research of the initial scenario, MONRE would provide provinces - those affected by climate change - detailed maps of flooded areas according to each sea level rise. These localities will be provided with financial support to determine the specific number of losses from houses, livestock, and rice paddies and devise a plan of action.

Ho Chi Minh City traffic jam because of heavy rain

Thousands of people on cars and motorbikes have been stuck for many hours on Hong Bang Street (District 6 and District 11, Ho Chi Minh City) on the afternoon of August 19 due to heavy rain at 13g on the same day, causing serious flooding at this area.In addition to Hong Bang Street, many other roads in the roundabout area of ​​Cay Go such as Minh Phung, Ba Thang Hai, Phu Tho . are flooded about half a meter, causing hundreds of cars to die causing a similar traffic jam.

By 19g, traffic congestion became more stressful.As noted, due to waiting too long, many bus passengers had to go down the road to escape the floodplain.While there are lots of drivers and drivers of trucks, passenger cars are stuck on Hong Bang road to climb on the roof of the car . watching the flooded scene because the car cannot go.Nearly 20g, the flooded water in this area was completely withdrawn, but the traffic situation still lasted about 2km on Hong Bang Street from Nguyen Thi Nho Street to Ong Buoi Bridge.

Rain also made roads in Hoang Van Thu park area (Tan Binh district) flooded with more than 20cm, causing traffic congestion in this area for many hours.Chi Quoc

Students standing in front of the National Administration Academy of Ho Chi Minh City wait for the withdrawal of water to come back (photo taken after the afternoon of August 19 afternoon at Ba Thang Hai Street, District 10, HCMC) - (Photo: A. Loc )