Nuclear race in the Middle East

Iran is not the only country in the region that has a nuclear research program, and even dreamed of making A bomb! Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt are no less than Iran .

Saudi Arabia's intelligence boss, Prince Murqi, on December 8, 2006 in Bahrain, before an audience that Western officials suddenly raised their voices: 'If Iran has an atomic bomb, we, the moderate countries in region, must also be armed '. A second warning came a second, this time Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak: 'We will not stand by our arms and look at people in the atomic bomb area.'

Intimidating " for fun " or " telling the truth "? Will the Middle East be a new nuclear nuclear card? If Tehran has an atomic bomb, will Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey sit still? Do they have the ability and the means to step onto this stage? Nuclear experts from Washington to Paris both affirmed: 1- Of course Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey, who fear Iran and doubt the power of US protection, have enough reasons to armed themselves. 2- They have prepared a few words . long time ago! 3- They easily got an atomic bomb very soon.

What reason to armed atomic bombs? Suat Kiniklioglu, of the American Strategic Center Marshall Fund, the Turkish branch, said: 'We do not want Iran to cross us! So far, our two countries are nearly equal: have the same population, area, living standards and military power. If Tehran has a bomb, this balance will be broken, we will be cornered. Iranians can interfere with our internal affairs as we have done. Their Syrian ally could re-launch the war for already tense water from us for decades. In short, we can't sit still and die! We have to repeat the balance with them. '

However, Turkey has been protected NATO 's' umbrella ' with 60 nuclear bombs at Incirlik base. On this, Suat shrugged in reply: 'We do not believe in NATO, nor do we believe in the United States. We only believe in ourselves. That's why we also have to have bombs, sooner or later. ' He also added: 'Imagine what happens if we have an atomic bomb in 1993? We were not afraid of the Russians and could help the brother Azeris in the war with Armenia, Russia's ally. '

(Photo: TTO)

Saudi Arabia's perspective is completely different. But the motivation to have bombs is very much and . urgent! Robert Einhorn, a former US senior diplomat, has just returned from the Middle East, saying: Unlike Turkey, the royal family of Saudi Arabia sees Iran's atomic bomb as a direct threat to its existence. . It is an immense country, with few inhabitants and loose defenses. The army is very weak and there are no US troops stationed in the territory. An Iranian with ' doping ' will put tremendous pressure on the royal family. They will " reclaim " the holy places and the majority of Shiite oil areas. Like Turkey, Saudi Arabia does not believe in American power. Since 2001, in the Ryiad capital, people have not believed that the White House will use a nuclear bomb to protect a country that once provided 15 of the 18 terrorists for September 11.

As for Egypt, the problem is different. George Perkovich, of the Carnegie Institute for Strategic Studies in Washington, recently visited Egypt, saying: 'Cairo is not threatened by Tehran's military power. But they consider themselves a natural "elder" in the Middle East. Now that they feel they have been surpassed by Saudi Arabia in the international arena, an Iranian bomb will cause Egypt to completely lose its' big brother 'position.'

Many experts assert: Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have long sought what they call 'nuclear military choice'. Last year, these three countries sought to buy civilian nuclear furnaces. Target? Officially addressing the skyrocketing energy demand. Robert Einhorn explains: 'It's not wrong. But there is another 'hard to say' reason. They want to have a civilian infrastructure for when they need to turn to military! ' Turkish strategist Suat Kiniklioglu frankly admitted: 'Of course, the atomic furnaces will be used for that. That is a very good idea that Ankara also has to acknowledge. '

A history of finding scary atomic bombs

All three countries have a simple nuclear history . Egypt has been working since 1960. With President Nasser, the goal is to deal with Israel at the time seeking to build an atomic bomb with the help of France. He bought a Soviet nuclear reactor, sent engineers to Moscow to learn the trade and built two atomic research centers. He also sought to buy back the Soviet Union and China a ready-made bomb but failed! Egypt's nuclear dream collapsed after the 1973 Kippur war. The successor of Anwar al-Sadat chose a completely different strategy: alliance with Washington and peace signing with Israel. He signed a non-proliferation treaty and renounced the program to build atomic bombs. In return, Nixon forced Israel's Prime Minister Golda Meir not to provoke Egypt and other Arab countries. Israel was not allowed to test bombs and never declared an atomic bomb. The treaty came into effect today, although Mr. Ehud Olmert has "failed" to reveal in 2006!

But, since then has Egypt completely kept its promise? Americans are very suspicious. George Perkovich explained: 'Many times, from the 1970s-1980s, the White House pressured Cairo to not buy nuclear power plants for fear that they would cover up a new military program!' . Doubt remains today. Egypt still has two atomic centers with 800 engineers scattered in research institutes. Purpose? The government responded: medicine, salt water purification, electricity exploitation. Thérèse Delpech, a French researcher at the National Nuclear Center, said: 'In 2005, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Cairo did not report some' sensitive 'nuclear activities. . Especially in the field of plutonium mining '. Forgetting to report or deliberately hiding a secret program? The question is left open.

Not yet. Thérèse continues: What is the relationship between Cairo and Tripoli in Libya's nuclear program? In late 2003, Colonel Kadhafi recognized the purchase of centrifuges and drawings of an atomic bomb by Abdul Qadeer Khan, the " father " of the atomic bomb of Pakistan. Eventually he gave it all back to the Americans to be removed from the list of 'evil nations'! But, how to make sure Egypt, or at least its intelligence agencies, ignored this smuggling line for 20 years? Many insist that Cairo, the "elder" of Tripoli, definitely knows how to exploit this.

Robert Einhorn explains: 'Mubarak is not crazy, he just wants to publicize his views: admire Ahmadinejad, who helps him raise his nuclear ambitions for his own country. But really embarking on a nuclear program must be very costly. And Americans will never leave it alone. They will disconnect the aid and make Egypt isolated. His regime will be difficult to survive. But because of the Iranian threat that Israel has publicized its nuclear arsenal, it will pave the way for Egypt to follow. '

In Saudi Arabia, Robert Einhorn and his colleagues are more concerned. It was Ryiad who had a terrifying nuclear history. Many rumors and facts have also been verified. In 1988, the US government discovered the Ryiad bought dozens of Chinese CSS-2 missiles. Mobile, they were stored in a warehouse in the middle of the desert, guarded by a group of Chinese experts. This 2,700km long-range missile is used to attach . nuclear warheads! Bruno Tertrais, of the American Institute for Strategic Studies, explains: 'CSS-2 rockets shoot very accurately. It is only effective when mounted with a nuclear warhead '.

Discovered, Saudi Arabia denies, and in order to prove goodwill . did not hesitate to sign the 1988 Treaty on Nuclear Dissemination. And just like that, that's it! Bruno continued: 'Recent satellite images show that this base is modernized and expanded. What purpose? It's hard to say, because most bases are in the ground. Saudi Arabia donates a lot of money to Pakistan's nuclear program so that when necessary, they have the right to use Pakistan's bomb store! I have no proof but like many experts, there must be a certain treaty signed. '

How did that happen? Robert Einhorn explains: 'Pakistan acts like the United States for NATO countries: placing rockets in Saudi Arabia and guarding itself. Who dares to imagine: a Pakistani regiment is present in Saudi Arabia? Just send a nuclear warhead and finish now! That is completely legal. Saoudite Arabs do not violate the nuclear weapons ban treaty. Who know?'.

So is Turkey. During the 1980s, the military ruling in Ankara secretly helped Pakistan equip an atomic bomb by transferring important equipment. Alarmed, the White House sought to prevent this smuggling. President Ronald Reagan intervened personally on June 27, 1988 during a tense talk with General Kenan Evren. New documents reveal: the US president cursed and taunted and retaliated. In the end, the new Turkish president finally bowed down and agreed to end this trade program.

But things don't stop there. Many suspected Ankara sent experts to Islamabad to study. This news has been confirmed by Greece. But it was also mentioned by the Pakistani defense minister in a press statement in 1989: 'Despite efforts to stop, a brotherly relationship between Turkey and Pakistan is still tightened. We are like being integrated into one '. Who knows how to understand.

Anyway, is Turkey currently capable of making an atomic bomb? The director of the Foreign Policy Institute in Ankara, Seyfane Tashan, believes: 'We have two nuclear reactors, many uranium mines, hundreds of scientists and the best infrastructure in the Middle East. In fact, we only lack fission material. You understand why. Although NATO's allies and members, Americans have always prevented us from buying nuclear power plants. Whenever a contract is about to be signed with a foreign country, Washington will be blocked by the last minute. Now they do the same. But we will not hold back. '

Ankara ready for a nuclear arms race? An unnamed Turkish official answered: 'We don't want that. Although Iran has an atomic bomb, that's not the reason to follow. We have other measures to deal with when Tehran attacks: NATO, aircraft, Turkish community in Iran . And if we rush into the race, the European door will be closed permanently. After all, other countries are also armed. Aren't I protected too? ' Do people listen to you?

DINH CONG THANH - Youth (Translation from Le Nouvel Observateur April 18, 2007)