Limiting exposure could save lives by tens of millions of people

The study says the Covid-19 epidemic could kill up to 40 million people worldwide this year if no social distancing measures are taken.

However, this figure will be halved if people cut social exposure, following a mathematical model built by researchers at Imperial College London in the UK, the South China Morning Post reported.

This model indicates that the number of deaths from coronavirus will be able to reach 20 million if people reduce their social exposure by 40% and adults reduce their exposure by 60%.

If social exposure decreases by 75%, this could save 38.7 million lives globally, according to the study.

Picture 1 of Limiting exposure could save lives by tens of millions of people
The red marker marks the seating position to hold the necessary space on board the ship in Palembang, Indonesia, March 20.(Photo: AFP).

The researchers concluded that the drier the restrictive measures were, the lower the number of deaths. They also warned that "all governments will face" challenging decisions " in the coming weeks and months on when they should apply " contact restriction " measures and should apply in To what extent, how long does it last?

In a study published on March 27, the researchers came up with several scenarios, such as what would happen if the world did not act to stop the virus but has now killed more than 34,000 people, in more than 700,000 infected.

"The only approach to avoiding the collapse of the health system in the coming months could be measures to limit hard exposure that is being implemented in many affected countries , " the study said.

"These interventions may need to be maintained to some degree in parallel with high-level surveillance and rapid isolation of cases."

The researchers also suggest that exposure restrictions should be maintained to some extent until effective vaccines or treatments are available. However, governments must also consider the sustainability of these measures.

Another study by economists at the University of Pennsylvania, Shanghai University of Technology and the Chinese University of Hong Kong, estimates that an additional 65% of Covid-19 cases will occur in 347 Chinese cities. Wuhan city is not blocked. The research is in the process of being reviewed, according to the South China Morning Post.