The 2013 Nobel Prize belongs to Americans

The latest announcement said the trio of economists Eugene F. Fama, Lars Peter Hansen and Robert J. Shiller won the 2013 Nobel Prize in economics.

>>>Nobel Economics 2013 can go to Americans

As expected, the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economics belonged to Americans. This year, 3 university lecturers shared the award.

"The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences decided to award the Nobel Prize in the field of Economics in 2013, in memory of Mr. Alfred Nobel, for: Mr. Eugene F. Fama, University of Chicago, USA, Mr. Lars Peter Hansen, University of Chicago, USA and Mr. Robert J. Shiller, Yale University, USA because of their experienced analysis of asset prices , " the brief notice released at 6:15 am Hanoi time of this institute. write.

Three scientists shared this year's Nobel Prize in economics: Lars Peter Hansen (above), Mr. Eugene F. Fama (bottom) and Mr. Robert J. Shiller (right).

The Swedish Academy of Sciences writes a summary of the work of three economists as follows:

There is no way to predict stock prices or stocks over the next few days or weeks. However, longer-term prediction is something that can be done, for example predicting prices in the next three or five years. The Swedish Academy of Sciences found this conclusion - which is surprising and contradictory - in the study of three scientists Laureates, Eugene Fama, Lars Peter Hansen and Robert Shiller.

Beginning in the 1960s, Eugene Fama and some colleagues proved that stock prices are difficult to predict in the short term, and that new news has an extremely rapid impact on prices. These studies not only affect the background of further research, but also have significant changes to the market. The index fund (Index Fund) is increasingly flourishing in the global stock market today is one of the typical examples.

If prices are almost unpredictable within a few days or weeks, will they become more difficult to guess within a few years. The answer is no, as Robert Shiller discovered in the early 1980s. He discovered that stock prices fluctuate more than dividends, and that the ratio between prices and dividends tends to go. down when dividends are high, and tends to increase when dividends decrease. This formula is not only true for securities, but also for bonds and other assets.

High profit in the future is considered to compensate for holding risky assets in unusual times of risk. The third scientist in the Award this time, Lars Peter Hansen, developed a statistical method that could be suitable for testing the ratio formula on real property valuation.