Wuhan virus and SARS - which one is more deadly?

A lot has changed since the outbreak of SARS and caused hundreds of deaths in 2002-2003, but some things are the same. Asia is on the brink of another pandemic.

In 2003, when Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) spread fear in southern China, Li was a 15-year-old male student reeling to prepare for tests in Wuhan, a local area away from the outbreak. translated about 1,000 km.

They were still in class and the students were informed that they could not go home between afternoon and evening classes, so parents gathered outside the school gate to give the child food boxes.

Li (not his real name) said his school smells of vinegar, due to the belief that a little vinegar will help prevent the spread of the disease.

For Li, SARS is not like what he himself will have.

People came across an anti-SARS ad in Shanghai in December 2003.(Photo: AP).

At that time, there were no high-speed trains connecting Wuhan with other cities, and Guangdong province, where the disease was born, he felt very remote. Some people wear masks, others don't.

Nearly two decades later, Asia is on the brink of another pandemic, according to experts. For many, the situation is very similar to the SARS epidemic with 8,000 people infected and 774 deaths worldwide from November 2002 to July 2003. SARS is also a strain of corona virus, causes flu-like symptoms and can change when it spreads from person to person.

In the past month in China, at least 80 people have died and more than 2,800 people have been diagnosed with Wuhan corona virus, the same strain of SARS. Other cases have been reported in several countries, including as far away as the US and Canada.

Traffic is being blocked in Wuhan - the city of 11 million and the epicenter of an epidemic - and in 10 neighboring cities. All of this happened at the worst time of the year: Chinese New Year, the most important holiday of the year for the Chinese, when three billion trips are expected to take place.

Even before Wuhan closed the terminals and airports, Li - now 31 years old and working in Macao - decided for the first time in his life not to go home during the "Spring" . He worries about the health of his family, but says that he personally cannot do much.

"I hope the government has learned from what happened 17 years ago," Li said. "It seems they are taking matters seriously, but I'm not sure if it's a bit late."

Six weeks after the outbreak, there were signs that China was dealing differently first. But there is still concern about China's reaction - and how transparent Beijing is.

Police were blocked at the gateways in Wuhan on days of city blockade due to the new corona virus.(Photo: AFP).

Weaknesses of SARS

For the first few months of the SARS 2002-2003 epidemic, China concealed the situation.

SARS news first appeared publicly in February 2003, but at that time, the disease had been taking place for months. Five people have died and another 300 have been infected in Guangdong province.

In April 2003, a prominent doctor in Beijing publicly accused the government of covering things up. Later that month, China fired its health minister and mayor of Beijing.

And it was not until April - about five months after the outbreak - that scientists in the United States and Canada announced they had sequenced the genome believed to be responsible for the SARS virus.

Lack of transparency from China, combined with a lack of knowledge about the virus and a lack of willingness among countries in the region to cope with the pandemic, all have resulted in the deadly outcome of SARS.

In the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, more than 280 people died from SARS - the highest per-capita mortality rate in territories around the world.

"The outbreak (disease) is very, very difficult to control. At the time, we did not know what caused the pandemic," said Ivan Hung, an infectious disease expert at the University of Hong Kong. . "We have no control over the situation, we can make an early diagnosis and therefore apply isolation measures. A lot of cases of cross-infection in hospitals."

SARS also shows how weak China and other territories are in dealing with a pandemic. In an article published shortly after the epidemic was under control, former Hong Kong health authority leader Lee Shiu-hung pointed out a number of problems the city faced, including the lack of protective clothing. There is no room for health workers, the lack of hospital leadership and basic weaknesses in the health care system, such as overcrowding and poor ventilation.

As expert Hung said, at that time, public health officials were "trying to find a tie".

Grace - Hong Kong resident, 37 years old - then training at a hotel, recalling fear. At her hotel, everyone wears a mask and people wash their hands and phones before starting work.

"Everyone is worried because no one knows how serious the situation is. Everyone has to wear a mask anytime, anywhere. Business is not good," Grace said. "People want to stay home if they don't have to go to work or school."

Another Chinese

In the six weeks since the discovery of the first case of Wuhan corona virus, it is clear that China today is not like China in 2003.

China notified the World Health Organization (WHO) of the new strain on December 31, 2019, less than three weeks after the first case was detected on 12 December. The new strain was identified on January 7 - as fast as any other developed country can identify it, said Ian Lipkin, a professor of epidemiology at Columbia University who was once involved in preventing SARS. back in 2003.

Passengers were tested for body temperature at the airport in Beijing on January 22.(Photo: AP).

Peter Daszak, president of EcoHealth Alliance, a nonprofit organization specializing in emerging infectious diseases, said the timely identification of this new strain has allowed other countries to develop identification tests early. virus, help control disease.

Experts also praised China for being transparent about the outbreak - something it has been criticizing last time. Many are also impressed by China's unprecedented decision to stop traffic to and from Wuhan on the biggest holiday in the country.

"SARS is a great shame for China, and that has driven a lot of openness and transparency around the epidemic," Mr. Daszak said.

There are also other things that could make this pandemic easier to prevent than SARS 17 years ago.

China and other Asian countries have strengthened their ability to respond to pandemics. Chinese residents are also more aware of how to protect themselves against the spread of viruses, Professor Lipkin said. Wearing a mask is now mandatory in Wuhan, but before that, online sales had skyrocketed, China Daily reported.

That is the situation in Hong Kong. For nearly eight months, masks have been closely linked to the ongoing anti-government protest movement. But in the past few weeks, more and more people are wearing medical masks in public places - for their health. For many people, SARS has taught them how to cope with risk.

According to Horace Lau, a pharmaceutical leader in Hong Kong, medical masks appear everywhere on the subway and the city is facing a serious shortage of masks.

Grace said she started wearing a mask weeks ago.

"Since the SARS epidemic in 2003, people in Hong Kong have become more aware of their health and how to protect themselves , " she said.

Shoppers wear masks at a supermarket in Beijing on January 25.(Photo: Reuters)

What has not changed?

However, while China certainly has more communication about Wuhan corona virus, there is still suspicion.

In 2003, Mr. Li, then 15 years old, did not think about asking questions to the authorities. Now, as a scholar living outside of censorship in mainland China, he believes that the Chinese government does not trust its people to tell the full truth.

"(This is) the idea of ​​'we have to control the level of panic instead of the scale of disease," he said. "I can only hope that . they can act better and react quickly instead of hiding information from people."

A senior State Department official said the US was concerned about the transparency of the Chinese government.

"I believe the anxiety you see both inside China and around the world is a reflection of what we have seen in the past," the official said. "The reluctance to respond quickly does not give the global community the sense of security that this is being controlled within China."

But then President Donald Trump said on Twitter that China "worked hard to stop the corona virus" and thanked Chinese President Xi Jinping.

"The United States appreciates their efforts and transparency very well. All will be fine. On behalf of the American people, I want to thank President Xi!" Mr. Trump said.

Medical staff standing next to an ambulance in Wuhan on January 26.(Photo: Xinhua / AP).

Mr. Daszak said there will always be more people infected than we know - not everyone's symptoms are serious for them to go to the hospital. Professor Lipkin concurred, saying that the authorities may be cautious about reporting figures because this time is winter - the season when people often get the flu and pneumonia.

Online, many people said they were rejected by hospitals in Wuhan. Although CNN could not verify these individual claims, the Wuhan health authority admitted that local hospitals were overcrowded. Officials said the situation would improve as more health facilities were dedicated to detecting and treating the virus.

Another major problem is the live animal market.

The Corona virus that causes SARS originates from civets, a wild animal considered a delicacy in southern China. After the outbreak in 2003, China banned slaughter and consumption of civets.

These civets carry the virus that cause SARS.(Photo: AP).

This time, it is believed that the disease in Wuhan originating in the South China seafood market is now closed, where a number of wildlife for sale, including badgers dogs and snakes. Experts believe that the new corona virus is carried by animals - possibly snakes - and then spreads to humans.

Although China prohibits the trade of some wildlife, it is still considered the world's largest market for illegal wildlife products. Experts say the wildlife trade needs to be banned.

"It puts the whole world in danger. And I don't think we can allow these things to continue. The risk is too great," Mr. Lipkin said.

On January 26, China banned the wildlife trade nationwide, including at markets, restaurant supermarkets and on e-commerce sites. The ban takes effect immediately.

SARS again?

There is reason to think that the current corona virus pandemic will not have the same impact as the previous SARS epidemic.

Currently, the virus has been lethal but the rate is not high. By January 22, Mr. Daszak estimated that the death rate this time was 3.5%, while the WHO estimated that SARS had a death rate of 14% to 15%.

This time, we know what the disease is and there are potential vaccines that could be tested, Mr. Daszak said. Health authorities are also better prepared, according to Hung, who doesn't think the pandemic will be as bad as SARS.

But the government is also facing new difficulties. This boom occurred during the Chinese New Year and in the past 17 years, China has witnessed a strong growth in international and domestic tourism.

China's expanded trade network means the virus can spread to places like Africa, where the review may not be thorough, Mr. Daszak said. Even in more developed countries, the identification of people who are likely to be infected still depends largely on how they report their symptoms - something some people won't do.

Military doctors marched to a hospital in Wuhan on January 26.(Photo: Xinhua / AP).

At present, the disease is not as contagious as SARS. If a disease is considered to be super-contagious, it means that one person can infect many people.

But if the virus evolved to become super-contagious, Mr. Daszak said, "it would basically be a repeat of the SARS epidemic".

"Every day the situation becomes more and more like SARS," Mr. Daszak said, adding that the decision to close Wuhan shows that the government may know something about how the disease spread is not good news.

Whether or not this outbreak becomes SARS depends on the degree of evolution of the disease - and how public health agencies prevent the virus from spreading, he said.

"Right now, we are standing at the edge of what could be a repeat of the SARS pandemic , " he said.

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