Climate change challenges national security

The National Intelligence Council (NIC) has just completed a new assessment of how climate change could threaten US security over the next 20 years when it causes a lot of problems. political upheaval, large refugee bureaus, terrorism or disagreement over water resources and other resources among some countries.

The Senate Intelligence Committee is reported on Wednesday 25 June on key issues.

Although the assessment is considered a confidential document, some analyzes are used as open documents, many of which are conducted by the Center for Information Science and Earth Sciences (CIESIN) at Columbia University. show. According to the NIC mandate, CIESIN must rank countries based on 3 weather risks: sea level rise, increased water scarcity and general vulnerability based on temperature variation being plan compared to the adaptability of the nation.

CIESIN Deputy Director Marc Levy and co-author of CIESIN's studies said: 'We can delineate highly anticipated climate change areas as well as historical unstable areas. . This suggests that climate change tends to exacerbate political risks . ' Many countries with many consequences of climate change also have a low rate of historical fluctuation. For example, US allies like the Netherlands are facing risks such as rising sea levels, in return they have strong economies and governments so they do not consider this a big risk.

However, other countries suffer from the risk of climate change anticipation and low adaptation rates stemming from the capacity of local organizations as well as the volatile history and the discord. These risks tend to be concentrated in the economically underdeveloped southern regions. Countries with higher risk status in the list of CIESIN may or may not match the NIC's list of South Africa, Nepal, Morocco, Bangladesh, Tunisia, Pa- Guay, Yenen, Sudan and Ivory Coast.

Uneven rainfall or other temperature-related phenomena can contribute to dangerous fluctuations due to crop failures or a number of problems in countries.This group of countries includes Sudan, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Congo, Ethiopia and the Jordan.(Photo: iStockphoto / Tobias Helbig)

The largest population living with rising sea level risk is in China, the Philippines, Egypt and Indonesia. Only China and the Philippines had 64 million people living in low altitude areas (1m above sea level). In Egypt - the country that received US military support for a long time and is a country with frequent internal conflicts, 37% of people live below 10m sea level in the fertile Nile Delta. In other countries, uneven rainfall or other temperature-related phenomena can contribute to dangerous fluctuations due to crop losses or other problems. This group of countries includes Sudan, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Congo, Ethiopia and Jordan according to CIESIN research.

Climate-related security issues can be highly influential when they cause 'significant or temporary degradation for one of the elements of national capacity (such as geopolitics, military economic as well as social linkages because they indirectly affect US territory, indirectly affecting the United States through large allied countries or important economic partners. Due to the global impact of the above issues, it is degrading US resources' (According to the NIC summary document cited by InsideDefense.com for the first time to carry out this review). 'Tension of resources and infrastructure will exacerbate the internal pressure of the country and at the same time create friction among localities in the process of competition or disagreement about resources as well as responsibilities. migration'.

The NIC's assessment last year at the request of the Senate Intelligence Agency partly shows the perception of military agencies that climate change issues need to be carefully calculated. A 2007 report by the Naval Analysis Center requires a comprehensive assessment of the issue. The National Defense Authorization Act mandates the Pentagon to determine the ability of the US military to cope with the consequences of climate change, especially when it is always available. before any natural disaster caused by extreme climate. According to InsideDefense.com, US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has adopted an unpublished National Defense Strategy that focuses on climate and environmental issues.

Richard Engle - a national intelligence specialist in charge of science and technology under the Office of the National Intelligence Director - in a recent speech made a comment on the report as follows: 'We want to achieve get feasible policies for the policy community. So we need to be specific . ' The initial assessment is expected to be widely publicized, but it is classified as a confidential document because of concerns that it will spark hostility from revolutionary governments (according to sources close to it).

Thomas Fingar, president of the NIC, will publish several parts of the 58-page report, titled 'National Security Implications of Global Climate Change Through 2030' (roughly translated as 'Global climate change affecting security'). national security until 2030 ' ) in the trial on Wednesday. Important results represent concurrent views of more than 16 US intelligence agencies.

Along with CIESIN, other sources of information contributed in the report include the US Climate Change Program, Naval Analysis Center, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Rand Group and State University. Arizona.

Levy: 'Policymakers are particularly interested in finding out whether climate change has made crises like the conflict in Darfur more frequent, and whether other scenarios of violence whether or not to arise. Science studying climate impacts not only gives us a definitive answer to the question, but at least we now take it seriously. '

CIESIN documents will be published from Monday, June 30.