Too late to be able to prevent extreme heat waves

According to the results of a study published in the Journal of Environmental Research (ERLs) issue on August 14, although the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide emissions (C0 ₂ ) are now more or less well. it's too late for people to stop the risk of climate change causing more extreme heat waves in the next 30 years.

Climate change is considered to be the cause of extreme heat waves, causing temperatures to rise over the past 50 years , pushing the global heat base by about 0.5 degrees Celsius. This phenomenon is predicted to be becomes more severe and occurs more often in the 21st century.

Based on the climate analysis chart, the study predicts that extreme heat waves that impacted the US in 2012 and Australia in 2009 will continue to affect about 10% of the Earth's land surface. by 2020. This number is twice as high as it is now and may be 4 times as much as 2040.

Fog covers Hefei City, Anhui Province, eastern China.(Source: AFP / VNA)

According to the study, at the same time, some extreme weather events will simultaneously appear as heat wave phenomenon with a standard deviation of 5 sigma (ie about 84% likely to occur). By 2040, this phenomenon will cover about 3% of the Earth's land area.

The researchers describe this 5 sigma phenomenon as unprecedented heat waves and have the same degree of extreme heat wave phenomenon with a standard deviation of 3 sigma (approximately 50% probability).

The Institute of Physics, which publishes the ERLs magazine, said that in the first half of the 21st century, these predictions will occur regardless of the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere.

However, the research team also confirmed that the scenario after 2040 can still change, and that the change depends on today's measures to reduce greenhouse gases.

If CO ₂ emissions are low, the frequency of extreme weather events will be stable until 2040, whereas if CO _{2 is} high, the area of ​​affected land will increase by 1% per year until when 3 sigma heat waves affect 85% of the global ground area by 2100.

In the meantime, the heat wave phenomenon with a standard deviation of 5 sigma will affect 60% of the ground area.

The UN member states have adopted a strategy to limit global warming, and are promoting negotiations on a "post-Kyoto" agreement to be signed in 2015 and effective in the year. 2020.

According to scientists, the implementation of the agreement to limit C0 ₂ emissions is quite slow and this greenhouse gas is continuously increasing each year, which is thought to cause the surface temperature of the Earth can increase by 3-4 degrees Celsius by the end of this century.