Climate change can push more than one million species to the point of extinction

According to a study published in the journal Nature - Climate change can push more than a quarter of terrestrial plants and animals to the point of extinction. Accordingly, between now and 2050, about 15 to 37% of species in the most diverse areas are at risk of extinction. Scientists believe that high extinction may also occur elsewhere due to climate change.

(Photo: conservation)

Scientists studied six regions, accounting for about 20% of the land area and calculating the future distribution of 1,103 plant and animal species. There are three levels of change taken into account - small changes, moderate changes and big changes - based on the possibility that some species can spread, successfully migrate to another area, thus limiting affected and reduced extinction. The study used mathematical models with computer help to simulate the ways in which species can move in response to changes in temperature and weather. This is the greatest collaboration of scientists on this issue.

Lee Hannah - Center for Biodiversity and Applied Science (CABS) of Conservation International (CI) commented: 'This study sheds light on the fact that climate change is the most important factor threatening extinction. in this century. The combined effect of reducing ecological drives (which has been considered the most important factor threatening species) and climate change reduces the ability of species to move and survive. '

The projections of some extinct species based on climate change from now to 2050 do not mean that these species will be destroyed at that time.

The study predicted that there would be at least 18% (average numbers when using different computational models) to become extinct with a climate change perspective until 2050, about 24% if available. Bigger changes and 34% if there are major changes. Thus, 15-20% of terrestrial species must be protected from extinction with minor climatic changes.

Chris Thomas - University of Leeds said: 'By extrapolating predictions with other terrestrial flora and fauna groups, our analysis shows that millions of species are at risk of extinction as a result. of climate change '.

Chris Thomas
(Photo: biology.leeds)

Minor fluctuations in climate can affect a species' ability to survive in the original ecology. A slight increase in temperature can affect the movement of a species to cooler places. If their ecological drives are completely destroyed, these species will have no hiding place. According to Hannah, this study needs to be divided into two parts: 'First, to quickly reduce greenhouse gases and switch to using new, cleaner technologies that can help protect countless species. Second, they We must find solutions to determine how climate change will affect the entire ecosystem, thereby preparing emergency measures to conserve them.

In this study, CABS collaborated with the South African National Plant Institute to calculate more than 300 species of plants in the Cape. In this region, 30 to 40% of the species of Proteaceae are in danger of extinction as a result of climate change from now until 2050. Proteacea is a family of flowering plants including South Africa's national flower, the King. protea as well as the daystar and the pincushions.

The Cape region is considered one of the 25 'biodiversity hotspots' with a large number of endemic and endangered species.

Global temperatures have risen by about one degree in the last century, and the earth has been warming up over the past two decades. Scientists believe that the recent increase in global temperature is caused by human activities that alter the composition of the atmosphere by emitting greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane. and nitrous oxide has retained the heat reflected from the earth.