Hurricanes are more and more frequent but with constant intensity

In a new study, scientists from Clemson University concluded that the number of storms in the Atlantic Gulf region is increasing, but there is no evidence that their intensity is stronger than the past or the possibility of landing in the United States is increasing.

Robert Lund, a professor of mathematics at Clemson University, and his team of colleagues, Michael Robbins and Colin Gallagher, also came from Clemson, and QiQi Lu from Mississippi State University, conducted a study of storm cycle changes. tropical in the North Atlantic in the years 1851 - 2008.

'This is a hot topic in the controversy surrounding global warming,' Lund said. 'Report of climatologists to the US Senate last summer gave information contrary to our recent research results. Many still believe that Atlantic water warms to increase the intensity of the storm. We totally don't think so; however, we see that the number of recent storms has increased. '

The graph shows the number of storms observed by humans from 1850. (Photo: Robert Lund, Clemson University)

The study provides one of the most rigorous statistical assessments for the above problem with the most detailed numbers. For example, Lund said: 'If there are really no such changes, you have less than one tenth of a thousand (1 / 100,000) opportunities to witness such many storms since 1965 until now.'

He added: ' Hopefully such a rigorous assessment will clarify the controversy and misinformation around the storms.'

While making the conclusion that storms are becoming more and more intense, researchers do not find any evidence that the possibility of a major storm hitting the US land is increasing. Lund noted that 'because of a very rare storm, we will need more years to gather enough information to produce reliable assessments on this issue.'

The study was provided by the National Science Foundation, a grant of $ 100,000.