If sea level rises, which country will 'fly color' first?

In the face of the effects of global warming, sea levels are rising rapidly, creating a global threat.

Sea level rise - a global threat

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the rate of sea level rise has more than doubled, from 1.4 mm/year, a 20th-century baseline, to 3.6 mm/year. year in the period from 2006 to 2015.

NOAA predicts that by the beginning of the next century, sea levels will likely have risen by at least 30 centimeters above levels determined in 2000. Meanwhile, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change The United Nations estimates that by 2100, sea levels will rise between 40 and 63 centimeters.

This number is very small when first heard. However, according to the researchers, if sea levels rise to this extent, it could wreak havoc globally to an unpredictable degree.

According to a 2019 study in the journal Nature Communications, about 250 million people, spread across continents, could be "directly affected" by 2100. Notably, several cities and states , or even an entire country could be wiped out by rising sea levels.

Which country is most affected?

Rising sea levels are a threat to Male, the capital of the Maldives.

According to the Union of Scientists (UCS), the Maldives, made up of 1,200 small atolls and home to some 540,000 people, will likely be the first country affected by rising seas, due to the average elevation of only 1 meter above sea level. They predict that the Maldives will lose about 77% of its land area by 2100.

Another country with an extremely low average altitude, with only 1.8 meters above sea level, is Kiribati, which will suffer a similar situation with two-thirds of its area disappearing.

Previously, according to a 2016 study published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, rising sea levels had led to the disappearance of at least five "vegetated reef islands", which were formerly part of the ocean. Solomon Islands.

In addition, populous countries that are also likely to be affected by sea level change, include China, with 43 million people in coastal locations, Bangladesh, where 32 million people will be at risk. , or India, with 27 million people.

Many large cities are at risk of very serious flooding, including Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia.

Jakarta, home to about 10 million people, has long been dubbed the "fastest sinking city in the world", with an average annual rate of 5 to 10 centimeters sinking due to erosion. Combined with rising sea levels, this factor has become a recipe for disaster.

A flooded street in a poor residential area in downtown Jakarta in Indonesia

According to the World Economic Forum, most of Jakarta could be underwater by 2050. The situation in Jakarta is so bad that the government is planning to replace the Indonesian capital with Nusantara, a city. The city is about to be built on the east coast of Borneo, about 2,000 kilometers from Jakarta.

Not only Jakarta, some other cities like Dhaka, Bangladesh (population 22.4 million); Lagos, Nigeria (population 15.3 million); or Bangkok, Thailand (population 9 million) could also be completely submerged, or most of the area underwater, leaving it unusable.

In the US, New York City is most at risk of seeing sea level rise. New York's vulnerability to flooding was clearly seen in 2012, when the city was hit hard by Hurricane Sandy.

At that time, at least 43 people in the city were killed as a result of the super typhoon, with about a quarter of a million vehicles destroyed and total damage amounting to at least $32 billion.

In addition, the state of Florida is also one of the worst-affected areas.

How do people cope?

By 2100, in Bangladesh, 32 million people will face major problems related to sea level rise

Of course, the key factor in determining whether a city or country can disappear no longer depends on a city/country's ability to solve problems and develop defensive capabilities. Castle.

Gerd Masselink, a professor of coastal geology at the University of Plymouth, UK, said that whether cities or countries disappear depends on how we are doing to combat that threat. .

For example, GS. Masselink said much of the Netherlands was below sea level but did not disappear or suffer much damage, because the Dutch had built and maintained well their coastal defenses.

"A low-lying but politically stable and prosperous country may be stable for decades to come, but a low-lying, unstable and impoverished country will not be able to hold its land," Prof. . Masselink said.