Revelations about disease X could cause the next global pandemic

According to leading scientists, influenza is the pathogen most likely to cause a new pandemic in the near future .

The Guardian cites information from an international survey expected to be published late next week, revealing that 57% of senior disease experts now think a strain of influenza virus will be the cause of the outbreak. next deadly infection globally.

Jon Salmanton-García, who conducts research at the University of Cologne, affirms his belief that influenza is the world's greatest pandemic threat based on long-term research showing it is constantly evolving and mutating.

Details of the survey – which includes input from a total of 187 senior scientists – will be revealed at the European Society for Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID) conference in Barcelona next weekend.

An artist is painting a mural during the Covid-19 pandemic in Manchester. Some scientists believe that Sars-Cov-2 is still a threat. (Photo: Reuters).

According to 21% of experts participating in the study, the likely cause of the next pandemic, after influenza, could be a virus – named Disease X – that is still unknown to science. Experts believe that the next pandemic will be caused by an unidentified microorganism that appears suddenly, much like the Sars-CoV-2 virus, which causes Covid-19, did at the beginning of the infection. to humans in 2019.

To date, some scientists still believe that Sars-CoV-2 remains a threat, with 15% of scientists surveyed in the study rating it as the most likely cause of a pandemic in the near future. near future.

Other deadly microorganisms – such as Lassa virus, Nipah virus, Ebola.  were considered a serious global threat by only 1% to 2% of respondents. Expert Salmanton-García added: ' Influenza still exists to a very large extent , being the number one threat in terms of pandemic potential in the eyes of most world scientists.'

Last week, the World Health Organization (WHO) raised concerns about the alarming spread of the H5N1 flu strain that is causing millions of bird flu cases globally. This outbreak began in 2020 and has resulted in the deaths or culls of tens of millions of poultry and the extermination of millions of wild birds.

Most recently, the virus has spread to mammals, including farmed livestock, and has now infected 12 US states, increasing concerns about risks to humans.

Expert Daniel Goldhill, of the Royal Veterinary College in Hatfield, told Nature magazine last week that the more mammals the virus infects, the more likely it is to evolve into a strain dangerous to humans. with humans.

Virologist Ed Hutchinson, of the University of Glasgow, added that the appearance of the H5N1 virus in cattle was a surprise . 'Pigs can get bird flu but until recently cattle could not. So the appearance of H5N1 in cows was a shock."

To date, there is no indication that H5N1 is spreading from person to person. However, in hundreds of cases of humans being infected through contact with animals in the past 20 years, the consequences have been severe. 'The mortality rate is extremely high because people have no natural immunity to the virus,' said Jeremy Farrar, chief scientist of the World Health Organization .