The greenhouse effect does not increase the number of storms

Many people believe that the warming of the Earth will increase the number of storms, but a recent study proves that it is not true, at least in the Atlantic.

(Photo: surfersvillage)

The storms have long been the focus of many controversies about the impact of the greenhouse effect. Most scientists agree that, since 1950, the number of storms formed above the Atlantic has increased. Since 1980, they have become more and more aggressive.

Many studies suggest that the rise in sea surface temperature is the cause. However, this situation does not occur in other oceans.

Tom Knutson and colleagues at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (based in Princeton) built a computer model to predict the formation of storms in the area. Northern Atlantic region, based on data on sea surface temperature and climatic conditions.

Tropical thunderstorms and strong storms in the ocean form almost instantaneously in the model. They move in orbit just like the trajectories of real storms.

Their model also accurately predicts the number of strong storms formed in the north Atlantic over the past 25 years - with 162 storms, while the number of meteorological and hydrological agencies recorded is 143. However, the model cannot predict storm intensity.

Later, the team changed the climate parameters to see how the Atlantic water would change when the weather changes. Experts assume that the increase in emissions will continue until the middle of the century, then begin to decline - a fairly optimistic scenario. Although emissions are reduced, the ocean will continue to warm up until the end of the 21st century and even the beginning of the 22nd century.

But what is surprising is that the model predicts that the number of thunderstorms and storms at sea will decrease as the ocean warms. By the end of this century, according to its prediction, the number of thunderstorms will decrease by 27%, while the number of storms will decrease by 18%.

"Our research does not support the hypothesis that the greenhouse effect increases the number of storms," Tom Knutson said.