The worst technology forecasts ever

Although Intel's co-founder Gordon Moore's comment about the density of transistors in computer chips has become the truth for decades, other predictions are not so highly valued. For example, Bill Gates used to say that 640 KB is more than enough for each person.

Judging from the development of future technology, it is as difficult as predicting what a new child will be as an adult, like the Apple CEO, Steve Jobs, talking about the web in 1996: "The web is recreating. "In the early days of the computer industry. Nobody really understood it, no one was an expert. And the experts saw the problem wrong. But it will open the magic ."

1. iPod dumb

Analyst Alan Sugar, in an interview with the Daily Telegraph in February last year, used the words "ending, disappearing, fading" to describe the iPod in Christmas in 2005. So But, 40 million of these devices are still consumed every year and Apple still holds 75% of the MP3 market. Even the "aura" of the iPod rallied sales of laptops for Apple. The market share of their computers doubled to 12% and the company is currently worth $ 53 billion.

2. E-mail is killed for spam

Many people, from experts to users, are concerned that spammers will squeeze the web e-mail application. Time is not long enough to draw a final conclusion, but 84 billion e-mails sent every day are clear evidence that this means of communication is still growing strongly. Although Cambridge University estimates that 60% of them are spam, many recent statistics show that e-mail is the most popular activity on the Internet.

3. Spam will be destroyed

The statistics do not match but all claim that the wave of spam still rushed into the web world with about 50 billion spams every day. Effective filtering systems make it less annoying for users, but this problem still exists every day. Microsoft claims the "stamped e-mail" plan, which collects a small portion of the cost for each e-mail sent, will discourage the spammer but that hasn't been done yet.

4. Going to the PC is also gone

Oracle's Larry Ellison may be right to say that personal computers are a "ridiculous device" but his investment in large amounts of money to find alternative products is also an unwise move. . The company introduced a "network computer" that is said to be easier to use and cheaper than any Wintel (Windows - Intel) system in 1997. But at that time, PC prices dropped significantly and everyone Also began to understand how to use Microsoft programs. Maybe, Ellison's failure was because he was ahead of his time because users at the end of the last century with dial-up connections and narrow bandwidth could not transfer executable content over the web.

5. Y2K error

Technologists think that software will be confusing when the computer clock switches to 2000, because programmers only put two numbers of the year into date-related computing systems. At that time, the computer would be mistaken between 2000 and 1900, creating a "Y2K problem". Scientist Edward Nash Yourdon and many other experts have sparked worries around the world when predicting the power source is operating unstable, the bank must close while the flights are deflected by the control system. recognize them . never invented.

The companies spent $ 300 billion to fix the problem, but the incidents were miserable as a nuclear system in Japan was slightly malfunctioned, a website displayed the wrong date and a pre-programmed oven. burned the cake due to software error .

6. Computer only weighs 1.5 tons

The world has come a long way since 1949 when Popular Mechanics magazine of the United States made a famous prediction that: "ENIAC system is equipped with 18,000 vacuum lamps and weighs 30 tons but future computers will only contains 1,000 lights and has a weight of 1.5 tons ". Today, nano computers are even so small that the naked eye is hard to see. Easy to imagine, the Sony Vaio VGN-TX2XP is only 1.24 kg.

7. E-government

In 1999, British Prime Minister Tony Blair promised 100% of government-related transactions to be published online in 2005. To date, 97% of services have been online. But when users access the license registration page, they will understand that "online" means a website that provides information, not a place to handle citizens' requests. Only 13% of government websites in the UK are capable of performing "luxury" jobs such as payments and advice.

8. Microsoft is also . usually

IBM used to consider acquiring Microsoft when it used the MS DOS operating system, but they did not realize the potential of a company at that time to have 128 employees with a turnover of $ 16 million. In this fiscal year, which ended in June 2006, Microsoft had a turnover of 44 billion USD and is currently worth 248 billion USD.

9. Electronic money

" Internet users need to understand that electronic money systems will have a big impact on their lives ," DigiCash founder said in 1995 and said the world will be flooded with digital money. Online payment service PayPal even promises: " If you owe someone $ 6.5 for lunch, you can e-mail them ." But, making a lot of promises . and so many promises, this scenario is still very far away.

10. Need something PC

Almost two decades ago, Ken Olsen, founder of Digital, said: " There is no reason for users to have a personal computer in their home ." It is worth mentioning that at that time, Olsen's company was the second-largest PC maker in the US. Later, Olsen argued that he wanted to mention "super personal computers". In the late 1990s, Digital was bought and turned into Compaq.

Some other statements :

" The phone has so many defects that it cannot be considered a means of communication. This device is obviously of no value to us ," Western Union forecast in 1876.

" We didn't need him. He didn't finish college yet, " Hewlett-Packard declined Steve Jobs's job application, later becoming the founder of Apple Computers.

Hai Nguyen synthesized