Vietnam may suffer a bad rainy season

Meteorological experts say that once La Nina happens within the next two to three months, along with other countries in the northwest Pacific region, Vietnam will have to suffer from many extraordinary storms and heavy rains.

The pioneer exchanged with KS Dao Thi Thuy, Head of Climate Forecasting Department, Center for Climate and Meteorological Research, Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment. Ms. Thuy said:

The Central Meteorological & Hydrological Center (TKT) announces the March 8 announcement of the US Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA), whereby the transition from El-Nino status to La-Nina may happen within the next 2-3 months.

If this process occurs, this year 's rainy and flood season (from June onwards), the countries in the Pacific Northwest, including Vietnam will be subjected to many unusual storms and heavy rains. But TTKTTV still forecast, this March and April, the weather of our country continues to be dry and short of compared with the average of many years?

Due to the atmospheric delay, El-Nino is still active within 1-2 months. Hot sunshine, little rain and drought in our country will continue before turning to heavy rain.

Do you share NOAA's view that La Nina is about to re-export?

Be cautious. Our climate notifications have long been based on a comprehensive analysis of many sources. At this point, we have the announcement of the US Climate Forecast Center (CBC), the Australian Meteorological Agency (NCC), and the Japan Meteorological Agency.

Natural disasters tend to be more serious (Photo: TienPhong)

CBC has a forecast like NOAA, ie the transition from intermediate ENSO to La Nina conditions can occur within the next 2-3 months. However, of Australia's 12 forecast models, up to 10 models forecasts are different from NOAA and CBC forecasts in the US.

That is, there is no possibility of La Nina within 2-3 months. Only two models of NCC coincide with the predictions of two US meteorological agencies. We intend to wait for the announcement of the International Institute for Climate Forecasting (IRI) to make our forecast. Inadequate is the IRI notice often late.

Notices we receive are free, so we have to accept it late. Money for meteorological, hydrological, and environmental research, including the field of meteorological forecasting - our climate is very limited.

Why is it necessary to rely on IRI notice, madam?

IRI messages are compiled from the most models (19) and therefore the most complete. Not only that, IRI forecasts also give the longest time anyone knows, the more predictable the greater the error.

On the other hand, we are cautious because La Nina is not simple to happen. The state of the atmosphere and ocean state must follow the rules of going to La Nina in at least three consecutive forecasting seasons to determine whether or not La Nina is available.

Do you have to watch for at least three months, ma'am? Does our TTKTEC warn La Nina about whether it will be too early?

The atmospheric state in recent years has changed very quickly, climate changes are increasingly abnormal. Although it has not been concluded yet, the ECEC's early announcement is necessary for the organizations and individuals to actively defend.

If La Nina happens as expected, what do you comment?

If La Nina happens within 2-3 months, this is more evidence that the recent atmospheric state has fallen very quickly, moving from phase to phase in a much shorter time than before.

Normally it takes 5-6 months after El Nino, La Nina appears, if any. But La Nina most recently affected our country in the winter of 1998. This La Nina started immediately after the El Nino ended from 1997-1998. Not only that, it is also La Nina, the longest, from 1998 to 2000. Damage caused by storms by La Nina during this period is very large.

Most La Nina and El Nino in the Pacific affect our country. From 1950 onwards, a total of 11 La Nina affect our country and the degree of influence is progressing more and more seriously.

In short, the recent fluctuations in ocean atmosphere are very large. Need to be proactive for the worst situation.

Quoc Dung