Billions of people will be hungry because the earth heats up

A study shows that at least 3 billion people will fall into food shortages by 2100, due to the greenhouse effect that warms the earth. This dark scenario can happen with a probability of up to 90%.

David Battisti, a climate expert at the University of Washington and colleagues, uses 23 climate models by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to predict temperature fluctuations for a century. . The research team only investigated the increase or decrease in temperature during food growing seasons around the world. The results of the study will help them assess the impact of the greenhouse effect on global output.

The results show that the prospect of average temperature in tropical and subtropical regions is higher than the previous century, with probability of 90%. With more than 3 billion people living in these areas by 2100, the temperature rise will bring disaster. Because the atmospheric temperature rises too high, rainwater can evaporate before hitting the ground. The fields will be dry and deserted. Farmers lose production facilities and do not have food to eat.

Disaster will not only fall into the poor country. Models show that the hot weather that killed 52,000 people in Europe in 2003 will become popular from 2080 on the continent.

Farmers harvest wheat on a field in India.Photo: usnews.com.

The heat wave in 2003 not only claimed human life, but also left many long-term consequences for European agricultural productivity. Temperatures reached the highest level in the summer, causing corn production in Italy to fall 36% in 2003, while French fruit production fell by a quarter. In the summer of 1972, the hot situation in southeastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia caused a 13% decrease in real Soviet output.

'Our research shows that land-based heatwaves can reduce global food production. If food shortages occur all over the planet at the same time, the global food market will fall into panic , "David said.

Many agricultural experts say that in order to cope with the greenhouse effect, we need to accept genetically modified crops or create heat-resistant varieties. But this direction also faces many obstacles. 'After creating new varieties, we have to grow experiments, then grow them to get seeds. This process can take tens of years even if we have modern tools. Meanwhile, food shortages may occur in the next few years, "said Marianne Banziger, director of the Global Corn Program of the International Maize and Wheat Quality Improvement Research Center.