Climate change increases the risk of war

Civil wars and armed conflicts in Africa will increase between now and 2030 due to global warming.

Previously, studies of the effects of climate change on the wars in Africa focused on rainfall. But recently scientists from the University of California and Stanford University (USA) have analyzed both data on rainfall, temperature and the number of armed conflicts in Africa from 1981 to 2002.

According to New Scientist, the team found there is a strong link between temperature and the risk of armed conflict. In periods where average temperature increases, the number of wars also escalates. Climate-based calculations show that the risk of war will increase to 54% between now and 2030, with the number of deaths increasing by 393,000. Marshell Burke and David Lobell, the two team leaders, believe that emissions will not decrease in the short term, so the temperature of the earth will increase and future wars will be catastrophic.

More than two million people lost their homes and became refugees because of the civil war in Sudan.Photo: ehponline.org.

Many other scientists agree that temperature changes can affect the risk of war, but they do not think the correlation is so strong. 'I doubt the conclusion of Burke and Lobell, ' said Peter Brecke, an expert at the Georgia Institute of Technology (USA).

Cullen Hendrix, a political scientist at the University of North Texas (USA), says there are many problems that could distort the results of Burke and Lobell's research. First, the study focuses on a period where the number of battles is much higher than in other periods. Second, after the end of the Cold War, the great powers cut aid to Africa, causing many continental countries to fall into civil war. Thus temperature rise is not the leading factor leading to the risk of war.

'We are happy if someone proves that we are wrong. But the link between temperature and the risk of war is still very tight even if we exclude other factors, such as democracy and economic status , 'Lobell and Burke stated.

Burke and Lobell believe that when the temperature rises, food production will decrease as plants grow less. In addition, labor productivity in many other economic sectors also decreased. That situation made the economy fall. As the economy weakens, social tension and the risk of conflict will increase. Global warming also reduces the amount of freshwater resources. In the future, disputes over water resources will become one of the causes of conflict between nations.