SimCLIM helps build climate change scenarios

Currently most countries, including Vietnam, are looking for effective solutions and strategies to mitigate impacts and adapt to climate change. In this context, many models and software for developing climate change scenarios and impact assessments have been developed, playing an important role in research in this area.

Specifically, the group of researchers from the Southern Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment, Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment has released the results of application of SimCLIM software in developing transformation scenarios climate for Thanh Hoa province.

The results show that this is an effective tool in setting up climate change scenarios and assessing the impacts of climate change.

SimCLIM is a software system developed by the International Institute of Global Transformation, University of Waikato (Newzealand) for the initial purpose of serving impact assessment and adaptive solutions, on issues agitation and climate change. SimCLIM software has two functions: calculating and developing scenarios, assessing impacts according to scenarios.

SimCLIM is designed to support decision making and adaptive solutions to change, in a variety of situations where climate change can pose many risks.

Users can customize model packages in SimCLIM's 'open platform' to assess climate change in scenarios: basis, future changes as well as extremes. Risks can be assessed both now and in the future.

Sim CLIM is developed on GIS platforms (computer programs that support the collection, storage, analysis and display of map data). Vector files can be added to the system, so it is very effective to carry out risk assessments for infrastructure and biological systems.

At the same time, the outputs generated by SimCLIM can be easily exported to the popular GIS formats today.

The group of researchers from the Southern Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment has applied SimCLIM for the study area 2 high emission scenarios (A1F1) and average (B2), to calculate the plays version of changes in temperature and rainfall. The calculation results from SimCLIM show that the annual average rainfall in Thanh Hoa province increases gradually through the stages and according to the emission scenario.

According to the scenarios A1F1 and B2, the average annual rainfall in Thanh Hoa in the periods of 2020, 2050 and 2100 increases. Allocation of rainfall increases gradually from the North to the South. Districts with high average annual rainfall distribution under 2 scenarios in 2100 are Tho Xuan, Trieu Son, Nga Son, Bim Son and Thach Thanh.

Average seasonal rainfall in the period from December to February and March to May tends to decrease over 1990 over the years, down from -0.55% to -26.44%. In contrast, the average seasonal precipitation in the period from June to August and September to November tends to increase gradually, compared with the background over the years, the increase from 0.51% to 13.38 %

According to the high and medium emission scenario, the average temperature in Thanh Hoa province tends to increase over the years. Temperature distribution gradually increases from the plain to the coastal area.

In mountainous areas, temperature increases less than in plain and coastal areas. The temperature increase in 2100 is 1.43 degrees Celsius and 2.66 degrees Celsius, respectively, occurring from March to May.