CO2 increased but not proportional to GDP

The Journal of Climate Change (UK) published on October 8 published research by scientists at Oregon University (USA) showed emissions of carbon dioxide (CO ₂ ), the main cause of greenhouse effect. The soil is warming up , increasing proportionally with the rate of economic development but not decreasing in proportion to the rate of economic recession.

Through World Bank statistics for more than 150 countries during the period 1960-2008, scientists discovered that CO2 increased by 0.73% on average for every 1% of total production growth. Domestic products (GDP), while the rate of CO ₂ decline is only 0.43% for every 1% of GDP decline.

Richard York of the University of Oregon said that the economic downturn did not lead to a drop in large CO2 emissions as economic growth increased this amount of air.

According to him, the reason for this difference is that new infrastructure that grows during the development period continues to operate during the recession. For example, when the economy is in recession, the factory is not closed immediately, people still drive on roads, many new buildings still use heating or cooling systems.

Mr. York stressed that even after 1990, when many developed countries began to seek to limit greenhouse gas emissions under UN regulations, this amount of gas during the economic downturn still fell less. more when it increased during the economic boom. He warned economists to reconsider how to forecast the rate of carbon dioxide increase, rather than following the increasing and decreasing model of GDP and emissions.

The United Nations Committee on Climate Change says greenhouse gas emissions raise the surface temperature of the Earth, causing floods, droughts, heat and sandstorms to occur more frequently and causing water levels to rise. sea ​​level rise.

According to the commission's calculations, the world economy will increase from 21,000 billion in 1990 to about 235-550,000 billion by 2100, which means that the Earth's temperature will increase by about 1.1-6.4 degrees Celsius in the same time. this time.

About 200 countries around the world are aiming to achieve a new global treaty on combating climate change by 2015, which takes effect from 2020. However, world leaders still fail in this effort at the UN Summit on Climate Change in Copennhagen, Denmark, 2009.