Drug-resistant bacteria expected to kill tens of millions of people by 2050

Infections caused by drug-resistant superbugs, or antimicrobial resistance (AMR), are emerging as a serious global health challenge. A global analysis released on Monday predicted that nearly 40 million people could die from infections involving superbugs over the next 25 years if immediate measures are not taken to address the threat.

Super bacteria – The dangerous "enemy" of modern medicine

Superbugs are strains of bacteria or pathogens that have developed resistance to multiple antibiotics, making treatment much more difficult and complicated. They are one of the biggest threats to public health worldwide.

The analysis, published in The Lancet, is the first to track the global impact of superbugs over time and predict future scenarios if the problem is left unchecked. According to the study, between 1990 and 2021, more than a million people globally died each year from AMR.

Antibiotic resistance is an increasingly common and dangerous phenomenon.

Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) is an increasingly common and dangerous phenomenon in which disease-causing bacteria, viruses, fungi or parasites develop resistance to the antibiotics, antivirals, antifungals or antiparasitic drugs that are used to treat the infections they cause. In other words, these drugs become less effective or even ineffective against the resistant microorganisms.

Impact of AMR across age groups

One bright spot in the report is that deaths among children under five from superbugs have fallen by more than 50% over the past three decades. This is attributed to improvements in infection prevention and control in newborns. However, when children do get superbugs, the infections become very difficult to treat.

In contrast, deaths among older people – especially those over 70 – have increased by more than 80% over the same period. As the world's population ages, it becomes more vulnerable to infections and is at greater risk of encountering superbugs.

In particular, deaths from MRSA, a type of staphylococcus aureus bacteria that is resistant to many antibiotics, have doubled, from 65,000 in the early 1990s to 130,000 in 2021.

When bacteria become resistant to drugs, common infections such as pneumonia, urinary tract infections, skin infections. become more difficult to treat, prolong illness, and increase the risk of complications and death.

Forecasting the future: Grim scenario

Based on current trends, researchers have forecast that the number of direct deaths due to AMR will increase by 67% over the next 25 years , reaching an estimated 2 million deaths per year by 2050. AMR could also contribute to an additional 8.2 million deaths annually, an increase of nearly 75%, bringing the total number of deaths due to superbugs to 169 million over this period.

The analysis found that AMR could directly cause 39 million deaths by 2050 without significant intervention. However, a less dramatic scenario is also possible if the global community focuses on improving healthcare for severe infections and expanding access to antibiotics. In this case, up to 92 million lives could be saved by 2050.

Treatment of drug-resistant infections often requires expensive specialty drugs, complex treatments, and prolonged hospital stays, placing an economic burden on patients and the health system.

'These findings underscore that AMR has been a significant global health threat for decades and that this threat is growing,' said study co-author Mohsen Naghavi of the US-based Institute for Health Metrics. The study analyzed 22 pathogens, 84 pathogen-drug combinations, and 11 infectious syndromes such as meningitis, using data from 520 million individual records worldwide, covering 204 countries and territories.

The analysis comes at a crucial time, ahead of a high-level meeting on AMR at the United Nations scheduled for September 26, to draw international attention and spur action to avert the coming disaster.

Many advances in medicine, such as surgery, chemotherapy, and organ transplants, depend on the use of antibiotics to prevent and treat infections. Antibiotic resistance could reverse these advances and make surgeries more dangerous.

Why are drug-resistant superbugs so dangerous?

Antibiotic resistance is a natural phenomenon in which bacteria develop resistance to the antibiotics we use to treat them. However, the overuse and misuse of antibiotics in medicine, livestock and agriculture has accelerated this process, making many types of bacteria harder to treat. When bacteria develop resistance, traditional treatments become ineffective, leading to higher mortality rates.

Not only affecting the treatment of common diseases such as pneumonia, wound infections or meningitis, superbugs also threaten advances in modern medicine such as surgery, cancer chemotherapy and organ transplants, when the risk of uncontrolled infections becomes too high.

Overuse of antibiotics makes bacteria harder to treat.

Tackling AMR requires global cooperation, including controlling antibiotic use, developing new drugs and raising awareness of the dangers of superbugs. At the same time, improving access to health care, strengthening infection control measures and developing effective treatments are urgently needed.

In the fight against superbugs, acting now could save millions of lives and protect the future of global health from a major health crisis.