Earth's temperature could rise up to 4°C by the end of this century

Earth's temperature could rise by as much as 4°C by the end of this century, despite commitments made at the COP26 Climate Summit, according to a new report.

Researchers from the University of Exeter and the UK Meteorological Service (Met Office) analyzed the policies circulating around the world and found that, on "current trajectories", the limited target Global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels of the Paris Agreement is slowly getting out of hand.

Professor Richard Betts, who led the study, said that "agreements made at COP26 in Glasgow (Scotland, UK) "reduced the likelihood" of warming by up to 4°C but this is still possible. happen".

If this happens, the number of heat-related deaths in the UK is expected to rise from 2,000 a year now to 7,200 in the 2050s and 12,800 in the 2080s.

According to the report, the UK Government's Third Climate Change Risk Assessment concluded that climate change has been and continues to present significant risks to the natural environment, infrastructure, and health. health of people, communities and businesses in the UK.

Sea level will continue to rise in the context of global warming.

The UK also faces concerns related to security, migration and supply chains. All of these risks will increase if warming reaches 2°C and even higher at 4°C.

"Projections consistent with current policies around the world suggest that warming between 2°C and 5°C by the end of the century depends on the rate of greenhouse gas emissions," the report states. greenhouse gases and the response of the climate system to these emissions. 

This will lead to more extreme weather patterns and events, increasing risks to people and biodiversity, and higher temperatures lead to greater risks."

Limiting global warming to a lower level can still be achieved if global emissions are rapidly reduced to zero or negative. However, even if global warming is successfully limited to between 1.5 and 2°C, weather patterns will still be different from those of recent decades, and sea levels will continue. increased to some extent.

The report calls for Britain to do more to prepare for these impacts.