Seawater may not rise as expected

Currently sea level rise per year 3 mm. But it will continue to happen? Researchers have just introduced a new model. Accordingly, sea level is unlikely to rise by 2 m at the end of the century as previously predicted.

Port of Singapore: Rising sea levels can jeopardize millions of people around the world.Photo: AFP.

Scientists as well as ordinary people are interested in the question of the impact of climate change. At the local level, people are interested in how the average temperature and the amount of rainwater may change, on a global scale, other than the question of how the ocean water changes as how.

The thing is certain: The water level is rising, now the average is about 3 mm a year. Sea level rise can jeopardize millions of people in near-shore areas around the world. What is controversial now is predictions: researchers continuously publish many new works on the subject.

A recent work published in the specialized journal "Science" has slightly brake for tragedy. According to the team of Tad Pfeffer from the University of Colorado, they do not believe that the sea level will rise by 2 m until the end of the century as some models predicted before.

The question that the group poses is: How much ice from Greenland and Antarctica must melt into the oceans to create a certain sea level? Based on that they have calculated many different scenarios. Next, they rate how much the amount of snow and ice melts.

Decisive is the flow velocity of glaciers. According to Pfeffer, it has been observed for a long time that the glaciers flow into the sea at a maximum of 10 km a year.

In order for the sea level to rise by 2 m until the end of the century, Greenland's glaciers must flow at unprecedented speeds - 27 km per year - until the end of the century.

Pfeffer said it was very unreasonable - and therefore predicted that the sea level would rise much less. They think that about 0.8 m to the end of the century is practical, maybe a little more.

However, scientists do not want their work to be seen as evidence of mild climate change, in any form. "Even if the sea level is only rising by 20 cm within a century, there have been many tragic consequences ," said Shad O'Neel from the US Geological Agency (USGS).