El Nino changes may cause many storms to land

Normally, in the years of the El Niño phenomenon, there are fewer storms on the Atlantic than usual. However, a new study suggests that El Niño can morph into form and cause more storms. At the same time, the possibility of storms hitting the land also increases. Climate researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology published the results of this study in Science, July 3, 2009.

Peter Webster, a professor at the Georgia Earth and Atmospheric Science Technology School, said: 'Normally, the El Niño phenomenon makes the number of storms in the Atlantic decrease. However, El Niño has changed its shape and caused many storms. The frequency of storms increases and the possibility of storms attacking the land is also much higher. '

Explaining this, the scientists think that this new El Niño form, commonly known as El Niño Modoki, (which means 'breed but not like' in Japanese), formed in the central area. Pacific Ocean instead of in the Pacific Ocean like the typical El Niño form. Warming in the central Pacific is accompanied by an increase in storm frequency and the likelihood of storms hitting the Gulf coast and Central America coast.

Although warm currents known as El Niño form in the Pacific, it affects other ocean currents around the globe, changing the number of storms in the Atlantic. It is difficult to predict the common El Niño phenomenon (Spanish means 'boy'). Normally, it is thought that El Niño occurs from December to April next year. However, in the summer before the El Niño phenomenon occurs, storm patterns change. That El Niño forecast can come only one month before the hurricane season takes place in June. However, El Niño Modoki is different.

2008 recorded a storm record. In this photo taken on August 28, 2008, three storms can be identified at different stages: Fay, Gustav, and Hannah. (Photo: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

Webster said: 'This new El Niño form is more predictable. We are not sure why, but this means we will get more storm warnings. '

On the reason why El Niño changed to El Niño Modoki, there is no clear and satisfactory answer yet, Mr. Webster said.

He said: 'It may be part of the natural fluctuation of El Niño. It may also be the reaction of El Niño to the warming of the atmosphere. There are traces that the trade winds on the Atlantic become weaker over time and this may lead to a gradual warming to the West. More data is needed before we know for sure about this phenomenon. '

In this study, Webster, together with Director of the Earth and Atmospheric Science Institute and research scientist Hye-Mi Kim, used satellite data in combination with a record of tropical storms and climate models. .

The team is currently tracking La Niña, the cold ocean current in the eastern and central Pacific.

Webster said: 'In the past, La Niña has combined with the storm in the North Atlantic and La Niña seems to gradually change its structure. We are really fascinated by the reason El Niño-La Niña changes. To be able to do this, it is necessary to conduct a series of experiments with different climate models. "