Scientists debate the evolution of El Nino

* El Nino will transition to ENSO (El Nino / Southern Oscillation) from March to May 2007?

The anomalies of the sea surface temperature (SST / Sea Surface Temperature) were reduced when approaching the equatorial Pacific region during January 2007. However, the sea temperature is 0.5 to 1 degree C warmer in most areas

ENSO observation system in the Pacific (Photo: NOAA)

This is still noted between 170 degrees of east and south coast.

The latest SST originating in the Nino region remains at 0.5 degrees Celsius. The hot air mass above the ocean near the equator (average temperature of 300m above the ocean) peaked in late November 2006 and fell little quick since then. This trend indicates that the warming of the sea surface at the time of El Nino is weakening.

However, it can still impact several regions in the next month, first of all in the tropical Pacific center. Most control statistics and models, including the climate forecast system (NCEP Climate Forecast System / CFS), indicate that the anomalies of SST will continue to increase and neutral ENSO conditions will be consistent. suitable for their development between March and May 2007.

And then? According to NOAA (American Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), there are many uncertain predictions in each period after May 2007. Particularly in Vietnam, by the end of February, there will be an official confirmation of El Nino.

ĐKK (Youth)

(According to Climate Forecast Center / CPC and National Center for Environmental Forecast / NCEP 8.2.07).