The model is capable of predicting the future state of coral

According to a new model based on technical principles, the size and shape of corals can tell us in advance the existence of corals in the world when the weather goes bad, ' stir ' the great positive in the coming years.

(Photo: australienbilder) According to an article published this week in the international scientific journal ' Nature ', the stronger and stronger storms are linked to climate change, as well as tsunamis. In the future, it will be the main impacts on the coral reef. The author of the paper argues that coral size and shape are the factors that scientists can transform.

'Coral reef experts have long had a general judgment about the shapes of corals, which types of corals will make corals more vulnerable to storms,' said Joshua Madin, scientist. Study at the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS) at the University of California, Santa Barbara. However, in order to really predict how these factors affect the movement of coral reefs, we need to have a way to determine the number of elements that make corals easy. being attacked.

Scientists have created the world's first engineering model to predict how much of the coral reefs can be damaged when confronted with the power of the sea in an ' angry '. They use mathematical models to calculate the forces that act on corals - forces such as waves, sea storms or tsunamis - and the ability of coral populations to be "removed" from the seabed.

According to scientists, knowing how coral populations deal with the power of the sea is essential because scientists can understand the natural distribution of these types. coral reefs on the current coral reefs and can predict how they will change when dealing with stronger and more frequent storms.

'Our research offers a solution to this long-standing problem by examining the shape of different coral populations, their grip on the seabed, and the changing forces of the waves when they move along the reef, ' said Madin. 'This has allowed us to predict possible changes to corals as they deal with future storms or tsunamis.'

Scientists explain that managers can use this information to better understand how world coral reefs can change in future climatic conditions and difficult conditions. can be predicted more than today.

'The prediction tool we developed allows managers to assess the danger of coral reefs when there are waves,' Mr. Madin said. 'The ability to estimate the damage caused by different hazards to coral reefs may help managers anticipate economic losses as well as develop strategies to help them. restore the coral reef. '

Coral like rock tissue (Photo: mansfield.osu.edu)

Scientists use mathematical models based on technical principles to convert the motion of storm waves into mechanical forces acting on corals in different parts of the coral reef, in conjunction with Different shapes of coral populations and then calculate whether they are knocked out of the seabed during extreme weather conditions.

This study introduced a new concept, ' Population shape factor ', which is the concept of converting a multitude of shapes and sizes of coral populations into a simple ratio, this ratio. will measure the level of danger that corals can be knocked out of the sea floor. Any serious force, like a hurricane, also reaches a measurable threshold at the same rate, allowing scientists to determine which coral will live and which coral will die. .

Scientists discovered that the most vulnerable coral is the ' table ' coral, which is a flat and wide coral held by a narrow ' table leg ', making them vulnerable. Influenced by stronger waves than corals shaped like rock or coral with many branches. The vulnerability depends on whether the coral rises in front, at the top, flat or behind the reef, where the force of the wave is always weakened and gone.

The team conducted a field study on Lizard Island, on the north side of the Great Barrier Reef (the world's largest coral reef along the coast of Queensland, Australia, about 2000 km long), photographing coral reefs. Digital and calculate their vulnerability status. They found that the threshold of the force of the biggest storm last year predicted the size and shape of corals almost perfectly.

Scientists say even more serious storms, on their own, probably won't pose a major threat to coral reefs. 'Coral adapted to life in stormy seas. Even for corals in the most vulnerable situation, they are quite solid when they have silk, ' said Connolly, who co-conducted the study. "They also tend to grow and mature very quickly, so the coral species can recover before the next big storm comes."

However, the effect of increasing greenhouse gas emissions is an increase in acidity in the ocean. This could reduce the ' durability ' of the coral reef, and ' amplify ' the damage caused by tropical storms in the coming decades. According to scientists, the other effects of global warming may limit the resilience of coral reefs after waves of waves. For example, unusual heat waves can cause coral cells to become contaminated or bleached. Another problem is that overfishing can kill all fish that eat dead corals and keep clean green corals so that the next generation of corals can grow.

Mr. Connolly 'Whether we consider more severe storms as an immediate threat or just according to the rules of the natural cycle, one thing is certain: to predict the events. what will underground do under different impacts in the future and in order to find a solution, we need to know exactly how the wave's impact will affect the coral's viability. How is the coral reef. And these new models will provide a useful and essential tool for us, '

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