Why is it difficult to predict storms?

Although the model predicts that the current storm is better than before, predicting the strength and path of the storm is still difficult and complicated.

With the development of technology, better satellite data, faster computers as well as more in-depth knowledge of what actually happens in a storm, meteorologists can predict heat storms. The zone is much better than before, Popsci said.

Storm forecast involves some computer-generated models. Each model has its own differences and strengths."It is not a straightforward algebraic equation, where you find out x and see it as an answer. There are lots of results given and there is no exact answer," said John Cangialosi, Storm expert at NOAA's National Hurricane Center said.

Scientists use global dynamic modeling , which has real-time atmospheric data from around the globe and many physical equations that simulate what happens next, so that The path of the current storm is quite accurate.

When it comes to the intensity of a particular storm, they tend to switch to using a less sophisticated statistical model, by comparing the basic information of the current storm such as location, time of year. , storm behavior in history to give an average prediction. These models have the advantage of running faster and do not require much data or computing power.

Hurricane Katrina satellite image.(Photo: NOVA)

"I was surprised that we could put all the weather data in the world on a computer, which was impossible 15 years ago," said Cary Mock, a geography professor. at the University of South Carolina, USA, said.

However, running complex weather prediction models on a supercomputer can be time consuming. Therefore, when the storm appears unexpectedly or changes quickly, scientists must rely on faster statistical models to handle continuously changing parameters.One reason why the storm forecast cannot be more accurate is because the operation of the storm so far has not been fully understood.

Recent scientists have learned that a thick cloud wall around the eye may worsen, affecting the intensity of the storm.Predicting storms cannot be entirely based on models when meteorologists cannot obtain all the state parameters of the cloud wall around the eye. This is why storm forecasting cannot be based solely on computer information provided, but human intervention is required. Experts predict the weather will look at the parameters of the storm and estimate whether the model is correctly guessed.

Experts are beginning to learn more about how the storm works by making flights into the eye of the storm. Another way that is applied is to get the aircraft to the start of the storm, drop the ball and the sensor to collect data on weather aspects such as wind direction, pressure, steam to learn more. about how the storm works.