The strongest El Nino in history has ended but 'natural disasters in the second half of 2024 will be very fierce'

Weather is becoming more and more extreme due to many factors occurring at the same time .

The strongest El Nino period in history has ended

According to the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), after a year of pushing global temperatures to new records, the 2023-2024 El Nino has officially ended and a new pattern has emerged. Opposing weather, La Nina, is expected to appear in the final months of 2024.

El Nino is a warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. La Nina is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and is associated with floods and droughts.

"The average sea surface temperature near the equator in the Eastern Pacific Ocean in April 2024 was measured below normal. This shows that the transition to La Nina is coming. La Nina may develop develop in June - August (with a probability of 49%) or July - September (with a higher probability of 69%)" - Report of the Climate Prediction Center said.

American meteorological experts said that La Nina tends to follow strong El Nino events.

Data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology proves this: Since 1910, the world has experienced 29 strong El Nino episodes and 20 La Nina episodes.

In particular, the strongest El Nino in the history of more than 100 hundred measurements occurred in the 1997 - 1998 El Nino period, causing the sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean (the 'cradle' of this event) to be unusually warm by 2.5 degrees Celsius. While the strongest El Nino 2023 - 2024 in history has caused sea surface temperatures to peak at 2.1 degrees Celsius.

Climate change "in action"

NPR information, El Nino is marked by warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, where large amounts of heat are released into the atmosphere. That's why El Nino years are often hotter than average. Coupled with warming due to heat-trapping gases from burning fossil fuels, 2023 ranks as the hottest year on record.

2024 is still predicted to be in the Top 5 hottest years on record. (Illustration).

Scientists say this is a clear warning that the combination of climate change and El Nino could set the stage for even worse heat waves, floods and droughts in the future .

The disappearance of El Nino does not mean that 2024 will necessarily end the recent streak of record-breaking temperatures, with the past eight years consecutively setting the hottest records.

"Even as the world transitions to La Nina, global temperatures are unlikely to change much until the end of the year. 2024 is still predicted to be in the Top 5 hottest years on record " - Tom DiLiberto, writer climate science at NOAA said.

What impact could La Nina 2024 bring?

El Nino and La Nina patterns are natural fluctuations that can also affect rainfall globally , meteorologists say . In the American Southwest, El Niño years are typically wetter (due to rain), while La Nina years are drier, exacerbating drought conditions.

The current shift to La Nina could make the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season worse. Ocean temperatures there have warmed, which may contribute to the development of hurricanes.

In the easy-to-understand language of meteorologists, the appearance of La Nina often reduces wind shear in the atmosphere. Less wind shear will make the storm more likely to strengthen.

In Vietnam, meteorological experts predict that the weather at the end of 2024 will be very fierce due to the appearance of La Nina .

"We predict that the atmospheric state transitioning from El Nino to La Nina (from warm to cold phase) combined with climate change will continue to increase extremes. Therefore, The second half of 2024 will have complicated natural disasters including heat, drought, saltwater, thunderstorms and hail more than normal. This is an impact scenario quite similar to the pattern of La Niña in 2020" - Mr. Hoang Duc Cuong, Deputy Director General of the General Department of Hydrometeorology, told Thanhnien.

Mr. Hoang Duc Cuong added that from now until the end of the year, the East Sea will have about 11-13 storms, of which 5-7 will impact on land. In the first half of the rainy and storm season, natural disasters will concentrate in the North, North Central, and Central Highlands. Particularly in the Central region in the second half of 2024 there will be heavy rains, storms and flooding.