Will world oil output reach its peak next year?

Many oil corporations and consulting firms have predicted that world oil production will reach its peak after 2020. However, some geologists and physicists prove that scenario will take place sooner, may start next year. Including physicist and oil engineer Fredrik Robelius at Sweden's Uppsala University.

The model predicts this scientist's oil production based on the data of 333 huge oil fields being exploited, with at least 500 million barrels of production - accounting for more than 60% of the world's production today, at the same time. Combine all the remaining small oil fields into one of the world's major oil wells. Fredrik's analysis focuses on past catches of the most recently discovered oil fields and reserves, and then compares future increases or decreases in oil production.

Oil rig offshore China.
(Photo: Mhi.co.jp)

From this result, he considered the possibility of detecting new oil fields in remote places such as the deep ocean or under the sandy desert in Canada. And Fredrik realized that oil wells in the world would reach the highest level of exploitation between 2008 and 2018, then decrease while the ability to detect new oil fields in the future is less.

Even, according to Fredrik experts, even if the world has discovered other potential oil wells, it will be all small scale with low output due to complicated terrain and costly exploitation costs. Agreeing with the comment, physicist David Goodstein of the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) said that humanity has reached the ends of the Earth to search for large oil fields and it seems that there will not be a giant oil well. any more was discovered. Even if more large oil fields are found, the possibility of world oil production will also reach its maximum next year or the following years before falling, Mr. Goodstein said.

However, disapproving people like Michael Lynch, president of an energy consulting firm in Massachusetts, say that people have not really started looking for additional oil sources, that world oil production cannot come yet. in the end, in part because the world still has many unexplored oil wells. Researcher Sam Kazman of a nonprofit public policy research firm in Washington said the new technology will help people solve technical problems in exploiting huge oil wells that are about to fall in love. depletion as today.

VP (According to LiveScience)

The Energy Intelligence Group (EIG), which publishes global news and reports on oil and gas, recently said that the world's annual oil production is more than alternative oil reserves.EIG's statistics show that world oil reserves in the past two years fell 13 million barrels (0.9%) and only 1,459 billion barrels at the end of 2006. Meanwhile, according to the US Energy Information Agency, The world oil demand in the period of 2003-2030 will increase by 1.4% / year on average, which will increase from 80 million barrels / day in 2003 to 98 million barrels / day in 2015 and reach 118 million barrels / day. by 2030. Even according to the US Department of Energy, world oil demand by 2025 could be up to 119 million barrels a day.

(Source: eia.doe.gov)