At the end of December, there will be the first cold, damaging cold spell

The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting stated that the average temperature in Northern and North Central Vietnam in the months of 11/2018, March and 4/2019 is higher than that of the long term average about 1 degree C ; December is about the same level as AMY; January and February 2019 were about 0.5 degrees higher than AMYs. Areas from the Middle Central region became popular at an approximate level of AMY.

In the winter-spring season 2018-2019, the time of occurrence is very cold and harmful compared to the average of many years (AMY), ie in the second half of December 2018. Most cold and damaging cold spells do not last long, but January and the first half of February 2019 are likely to have cold and cold spells lasting 4-7 days.

In recent years, the frequency of cold and damaging cold spells is uneven. Specifically, in 2013, there were 4 cold and damaging cold spells. In 2014 and 2015, there were 5 waves. In 2016, there are 6 phases and in 2017 there are only 2 waves.

In recent years, the frequency of cold and damaging cold spells is uneven.

The first cold air phase in the North appeared in 2017 is October 13. In 2016, this form appeared on October 19; 2015 is September 12; 2014 on October 4; 2013 is September 25th. This year, cold air flowed to the North on September 7, which appeared earlier than the last 5 years.

Regarding storms, tropical depressions and dangerous phenomena, it is expected that from the second half of October to the end of 2018, there will be about 2-3 storms, tropical depression and 1 attack affecting land in our country, concentrated in Central Vietnam.

In the last months of this year, the possibility of storms and tropical depression in the South China Sea is not as much as in 2016 and 2017.

In addition to storms and tropical low pressures causing heavy rain, strong winds on the sea and land, other dangerous weather phenomena will likely occur throughout the country, especially thunderstorms, hail, and heavy local rain.

In addition, there may be strong winds in the coastal areas and the northern and central South China Sea regions due to the operation of the Northeast monsoon.

According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, ENSO phenomenon is forecasted to gradually shift to El Nino status in the last months of 2018, early 2019 with a probability of about 60-70%.

Rain from Central and South Vietnam is more common than AM. The Central Highlands and the South in the early months of 2019 were almost rainless.

The main flood in Central and Central Highlands is concentrated in October-November 2018. The annual peak of flood on rivers from Ha Tinh to Binh Thuan is likely to be at the level of 2, 3, and 3, the main rivers in the Central Highlands region are at the level of 1-PC2. On some small and upstream rivers and streams, rivers are still capable of large floods.

From January to April 4, 2019, the flow on the rivers in Central and Central Highlands is 10-50% lower than that of AMY. Some rivers in Nghe An, Thua Thien-Hue, Khanh Hoa and Ninh Thuan have a shortage of over 60%. Local water shortage and drought situation are likely to occur in the Northeast, Central and Central Highlands provinces in the first months of 2019.

During the dry season of 2018-2019, the water level of the Mekong River gradually decreases at an approximate level and is lower than the average annual average of 0.1-0.3 m. Saline intrusion in the Nam Bo estuary is likely to occur earlier than in 2017-2018.