Decoding technology that can 'erase' the stealth of submarines: The most modern in the world?

Using the most modern technology in our time can make submarines lose their stealth?

Submarines are appreciated mainly for their underwater stealth

Ensuring that submarines can "survive" the first missile strike in a nuclear war and thus be able to respond by launching missiles in the second strike is key to Deterrence strategy is called mutual assured destruction.

For nearly a century, naval engineers have worked to develop faster, quieter submarines. In parallel, they also worked hard on improving a wide range of radars, sonars and other technologies designed to detect, target and eliminate enemy submarines.

The balance seemed to shift with the arrival of nuclear-powered submarines in the early 1960s.

In a 2015 study for the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (USA), Bryan Clark - a naval expert now at the Hudson Institute, noted that the ability of submarines to remain submerged for long periods of time This makes them "nearly impossible to find with radar and sonar".

But even these stealthy submarines make subtle, very low-frequency noises, and can be detected from a great distance thanks to a network of sonar arrays mounted on the seabed. And now the "hide and seek submarine game" may be approaching a point where submarines can no longer evade with modern submarine detection technologies.

In Canberra, that super-sensitive submarine detection technology could arrive as early as 2050, according to research from the Australian National University's School of National Security.

This moment is especially important because of the enormous cost required to design and build a submarine over at least 60 years. A submarine in service today will still be in service in 2082!

A US Navy P-8 Poseidon aircraft, equipped to detect submarines, awaits refueling in Okinawa, Japan, in 2020. (Source: US Navy)

Nuclear-powered submarines, such as the US Navy's Virginia-class fast attack submarines, cost about $2.8 billion each, according to the Congressional Budget Office. And that's just the purchase price; while the total life cycle cost of the new Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine is estimated to exceed $395 billion.

Two prominent issues include:

• (1) detecting submarines of rival countries
• (2) protecting one's own submarine from detection is huge, and of course the technical details must be strictly confidential.

Many naval experts are speculating about sensor technologies that could be used in conjunction with modern AI (Artificial Intelligence) methods to neutralize submarine stealth.

Rose Gottemoeller, former Deputy Secretary-General of NATO, warned that "submarine stealth will be difficult to maintain, as technology possessing the ability to sense all types, in multiple spectrums, above and in the water becomes more more popular".

Technologies that can "erase" the stealth of submarines

Today's submarine detection sensing technologies are more than simply listening to submarines to pinpoint their location through a variety of non-acoustic techniques - submarines can now be detected. This is shown by the small amounts of radiation and chemicals they emit, through small disturbances in the Earth's magnetic field, and by reflected light from pulses of lasers or LEDs.

All of these methods seek to detect anomalies in the natural environment, embodied in the complex models of underlying conditions that have been developed over the past decade, thanks in part to advances of Moore's Law in computing power.

According to experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in Washington, DC (USA), there are two methods that hold special promise, including:

• (1) Lidar sensor transmits laser pulses through water to produce highly accurate 3D scans of objects;
• (2) Magnetic anomaly detectors (MADs) monitor the Earth's magnetic field and can detect subtle disturbances caused by the metal shell of a submerged submarine.

Airborne laser-based sensors can detect submarines lurking near the surface. (Source: IEEE SPECTRUM)

However, both sensors have disadvantages.

MAD only works at low altitude or underwater. It is often not sensitive enough to detect disturbances caused by submarines among many other subtle changes in the electromagnetic field under the ocean.

Lidar sensors have better range and resolution and can be installed on satellites, but it consumes a lot of power — a standard portable device with a range of a few hundred meters can burn 25 watts . Not to mention, Lidar sensors are also very expensive, especially when operating in space. In 2018, NASA launched a satellite with laser imaging technology to track changes in the Earth's surface - specifically changes in patterns on the ocean's surface. This satellite is worth more than 1 billion USD!

Alternatively, one way to address the need for precise location is to make the sensors portable. Underwater drones can do just that, which is why some experts have suggested them as the ultimate anti-submarine warfare capability.

US Navy expert Bryan Clark said the US Navy is working on a drone that can run for 90 days. Drones are also now equipped with chemical, optical and geomagnetic sensors. Not to mention, networked underwater drones, which can work in conjunction with aerial drones, could be useful to not only detect submarines but also destroy them. That's why some militaries are investing heavily in them.

Chinese Navy's Robo-Shark - specially designed for hunting submarines. (Photo: ROBOSEA.ORG)

For example, the Chinese Navy has invested in a fish-like undersea drone called the Robo-Shark - specifically designed to hunt submarines.

The Robo-Shark, a 2.2-meter-long submersible built by Beijing's Boya Gongdao Robot Technology, is said to be capable of underwater surveillance and unidentified anti-submarine operations. The company says the Robo-Shark travels at 5 meters per second using a three-joint structure to wag the tail fin, making less noise than a standard propeller.

Meanwhile, the US Navy is developing low-cost drone attack technology for surveillance missions. Each Locust drone weighs about 6 kilograms, costs $15,000, and can be equipped with MAD sensors. It can glide low over the ocean's surface to detect underwater signals.

Retired rear admiral John Gower, a former submarine commander of the Royal Navy, has a different view. Underwater drones are "the least likely innovation to make a difference in detecting submarine stealth," he said.

Instead, there is a more powerful means of detecting submarines located in "continuous coverage of the Earth's surface by commercial satellites". More than 2,800 of these satellites are already in orbit. They are equipped with a range of sensing technologies, including synthetic aperture radar (SAR), which scans the scene below while traveling at great distances.

Commercial satellites equipped with SAR and other imaging tools are now reaching resolutions that can rival government satellites and offer customer accessibility at extremely affordable prices.

Jeffrey Lewis, Director of the East Asia Non-Proliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Non-Proliferation Studies, regularly uses satellite imagery in his work to monitor developments. Nuclear. But tracking submarines is another matter. "Although this is a commercially available technology, today we still don't see the submarine in real time. Even if you locate the submarine in real time, 10 minutes later, it's very difficult to find out. find it again".

Will artificial intelligence do better?

While these new sensing methods have the potential to make submarines easier to detect, none of them can do the job on their own. WHAT can make them work together is the most modern technology of our time: Artificial Intelligence (AI).

"As we see the growing potential of ubiquitous sensing capabilities combined with the power of big data analytics, the question inevitably arises," said Rose Gottemoeller, former NATO Deputy Secretary-General. : Is it possible now?"

Unlike traditional software, which must be programmed in advance, the machine learning strategy used here, known as deep learning, can find patterns in data without needing to do so. outside help.

Only in 2021, DeepMind's AlphaFold program (under Google) achieved a breakthrough in predicting how amino acids fold into proteins, making it possible for scientists to determine the structure of 98.5% human proteins. Previous studies in games, especially Go and chess, have shown that deep learning can surpass the best old software techniques, even when running on no faster hardware.

For AI to work in submarine detection, several technical challenges need to be overcome.

The first challenge is to train the algorithm, which involves the collection of large volumes and types of sensor data from continuous satellite coverage of the ocean surface as well as frequent underwater collection in remote locations. strategic mind.

Using such data, the AI ​​can establish a detailed model of underlying conditions, then feed new data into the model to find small anomalies. Such automated checks are most likely to detect the presence of submarines anywhere in the ocean and predict location based on past shipping patterns.

The second challenge is to collect, transmit and process large volumes of data in real time. That task will require more computing power than we currently have, both on fixed and mobile collection platforms.

Snakehead, a large underwater drone designed to be launched and retrieved by the US Navy's nuclear-powered submarines. (Photo: US Navy)

Sylvia Mishra, a nuclear new technology officer at the European Leadership Network, a London-based think tank, says she is "more concerned about undersea issues". .

"Until recently, movement under the oceans was the goal of governments. However, now there is a growing industry under the seabed. For example, companies are laying a lot of communication cables. underwater communications, which can lead to more congestion as there are more means of underwater inspection and leads to the possibility of confusion," Sylvia Mishra said.

The confusion may stem from the fact that drones, unlike surface ships, do not fly national flags, and therefore their ownership may not be clear. This uncertainty, coupled with the possibility that drones can also carry lethal payloads, increases the risk that navies might view an innocuous commercial drone as hostile. .

"Any action that puts an opponent's strategic assets at risk can create new points of contact for conflict and exacerbate the risk of war," said Sylvia Mishra.

Given the strategic importance of submarine stealth, retired Rear Admiral John Gower asks: "Why would any country want to detect and track submarines? - It's just your thing. must do if you want to worry a nuclear-armed power."

As part of its nuclear modernization plan, the United States has begun to replace its entire fleet of 14 Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines with new Columbia-class ships. The replacement program is expected to cost more than $128 billion to acquire and $267 billion over their entire lifecycle.

U.S. government officials and experts justify the high cost of these submarines due to their vital role in enhancing nuclear deterrence through their invulnerability. submarine fleet.

"To protect submarine stealth, creative thinking is required," concludes Sylvia Mishra.