El Nino is about to appear

The combined results of the Australian National Climate Center (NCC) on 12 forecast models of major forecasting centers in the world show the possibility of El Nino in December 2006 and January and February. -2007 is very big.

According to the latest news from the US Climate Prediction Center, the anomalies of the atmosphere and ocean in the Pacific equator are in line with the first phase of El Nino.

By the beginning of November 2006, the sea surface temperature was higher than the average of 0.5 ^o C on most of the Pacific equatorial area, exceeding 1 ^o C in the area between 170 ^o east - 145 ^o west , between 130 ^o west and South America coast. Most statistical models and motivation predict the El Nino conditions will continue until early 2007.

The report of the International Research Institute for Climate Forecasting (IRI) also predicts that by mid-November 2006, sea surface temperature is higher than 1 ^o C above the Pacific equator, exceeding 1, 5 ^o C in the center and area close to the coast of South America. Recent observations and forecasts suggest that the ability to maintain El Nino conditions will continue to develop until early 2007.

The number of storms affecting Vietnam will be less when El Nino appears
(Documentary photo, TTO)

From the above analysis and forecasted information, it is possible to identify the possibility of El Nino phenomenon in the next three months. If the evolution of the Pacific equator and atmosphere is predicted, then El Nino will officially appear in December 2006.

Although the international hydrometeorological authorities have not officially announced the occurrence of El Nino, the impact of this phenomenon on the global and regional climate has been relatively obvious. That is a significant shortage of rainfall in the western Pacific, including Southeast Asia and eastern Australia. Frequency of storms and tropical depressions in the Pacific Northwest, including the South China Sea is 2-3 times less than the average of many years. The US Climate Diagnostic Center warns that the apparent impacts of El Nino on rain in the western Pacific can begin from November 12, 2006.

In Vietnam, according to the results of many years' climate studies, when there is El Nino, the cold waves are usually less, concentrating in the main months of winter such as December, January and the winter monsoon usually ends soon more than usual. Meanwhile, summer monsoon winds are weaker and arrive later than usual. Rainfall will be deficient in most regions in the country, the level of deficiency varies from 25-50%. The place with the highest deficit is the Central (including North Central and South Central). Vietnam's temperature will be about 1 ^o C higher than the average in the Central region and 0.5-1 ^o C in the remaining regions. In the years of El Nino, the number of storms, tropical depressions operating in the East Sea and affecting Vietnam is often less than normal, more concentrated at the beginning of the storm season.

DAO THI THUY ( Center for Meteorological and Climate Forecast, Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology