Facing El-Nino

Master Le Thi Xuan Lan - deputy head of the forecast department of the Southern Regional Meteorological Station - said that from May to August 2006 continuously, the SOI index (Southern oscillator index) corresponded to each The month is always in a negative state, namely: -9,8, -5,5, -8,9 and -15,9. According to Lan, these figures proved very clear: the El-Nino phenomenon has begun .

However, when referring to the evolution of El-Nino in the period of 2006 - 2007, Ms. Lan said that through research and monitoring data published on professional networks, this El-Nino developed slowly but continues to grow and it is expected that this phenomenon will last until the summer of 2007. Meanwhile, initial records show that the Pacific equatorial surface temperature is warming.

Many remaining documents show that the most recent El-Nino occurred in the period of 1997 - 1998. This El-Nino was recorded as ' very strong '. It causes global weather fluctuations. In this period, Vietnam also suffered a period of drought that occurred across the country, described by experts as " very serious ".

Drought - a consequence of El-Nino (Photo: Dang Van Tran)

Will this worrying phenomenon have the same intensity as in 1997-1998? Ms. Lan said that according to the data recorded so far, it can be said that El-Nino this year has not seen any sign of a strong El-Nino and could not compare with this phenomenon occurred in 1997 - 1998. But in recent months there have been the effects of El-Nino, making the weather quite evident.

El-Nino is an unusually warming seawater phenomenon off the coast of South America (Peru and Ecuador), on the Pacific side, often accompanied by heavy rain in the coasts of Peru and Chile.

El-Nino usually occurs every 3-5 years.When there is El-Nino, warm Pacific parts cause weather changes all over the world.Their effects cause changes in temperature and rain to the United States and Australia.But their effect on each region is different.

(According to the National Meteorological Center network)

According to Lan, the most recent records show that in October 2006 in the Southern provinces there was a large-scale rain drop, lasting 5-7 days, while the activity of cold air sooner. In particular, the first cold air wave appeared on September 5, 2006 with cold front spreading to Hai Van Pass. ' Personally, I think this is a rather unusual expression because normally in the September there are few cold fronts that work like that, ' said Lan.

* El-Nino appears, what will rain and temperature be like this year, madam?

- Master LE THI XUAN LAN: Currently in the period near the end of the rainy season of this year. I think it is possible that after the effects of the storm with the international name of Cimaron, which is currently active, the rainy season in the South will retreat.

However, in the first months of the dry season 2006 - 2007, there are still some rainy days, but the rain will not be as much as the dry season in 2005-2006. drought occurs quite severely, affecting agricultural production, especially for rain-based production areas. And please note immediately after the annual Lunar New Year the drought and saline intrusion in the downstream areas of the rivers will begin, but the peak of hot sun, drought and saline intrusion is likely to occur from half end of March to May 2007.

* But will El-Nino make this winter warmer?

- Normally, December and January of the following year are the coldest period of the year for our country. Winter this year generally has a temperature of approximately or greater than the average of many years. However, from December 2006 to February 2007, it will be a period of strong cold air, causing severe cold in the North, while the Southern sky is only cold. In my opinion, the lowest temperature will not be like the winter of 1999 (in Ho Chi Minh City, about 15 ^O C) .

QUOC THANH