Impact of climate change on rice granary: Do not be pessimistic

In recent years, global climate change (CC), sea level rise is forecasted to be a disaster for the Mekong Delta, the country's granary. Through dangerous weather phenomena, this tribulation not only threatens productivity, but also reduces the land for rice cultivation .

However, agronomists believe that, although there are some impacts, but climate change is not a disaster. There is even an opinion that it should not be serious, because this is a golden opportunity for agriculture. The Mekong Delta has risen to new position, if .

Serious problem?

According to the forecasts of many scientific agencies, with the manifestations of dangerous weather (rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, reduced rainfall, expanding flood areas .), climate change will negatively affect the agricultural sector. career. Intergovernmental Committee on United Nations Climate Change (IPPC) and World Bank (WB) forecast: The average temperature in Vietnam will increase to 300C, sea level will rise by 1m, flooding about 1.5 -2 million hectares of land and reduce crop productivity. According to the International Rice Institute (IRRI), if the temperature increases by 10C, crop yields will drop by 10% .

However, according to some scientists, climate change has been going on, but do not be serious because it is a script written for . year 2100 and this is not the first time the earth is warmed up, also Not every CCTC is all bad. According to Science , so far the earth has experienced at least four periods of climate change. Particularly, the Mekong Delta has experienced 2 times of ' mourning the sea trade ' (mulberry fields have turned into a beach) and after each time, the Mekong Delta and the Mekong Delta have expanded their territory to the East Sea and the West Sea '- MSc. Deputy Director of the Center for Skills and Skills of Dong Thap - emphasized. ' Studies show that if mangrove forests and coastal sand dunes are kept in addition to a series of reefs formed during the previous sea level rise, the Mekong Delta area is lost because of sea level rise. not as much as forecast '.

It is even blessed, because climate change increases the erosion and river-wall erosion in the upstream, it helps the Mekong Delta to receive more silt, reducing the pressure of losing land due to sea level rise. Meanwhile, studies show that increased temperature only strongly affects temperate agriculture, with little effect on tropical regions like Vietnam. Many experimental results have demonstrated that global warming will make the Mekong Delta fruit trees more prosperous because of increased hexadecimal, more fruit-bearing flowers, higher productivity due to increased drought and early rainy season.

According to Prof. Dr. Vo Tong Xuan, this impact on rice is not worrying, because in addition to the ability to adjust by technique, balancing the area of ​​rice cultivation also contributes to reducing climate change. IPPC studies demonstrate that, on average, each hectare of rice is highly productive, excess nitrogen will evaporate into the atmosphere in the form of 80 tons of nitrous oxide gas (N2O), and 100 tons of methane gas (CH4) are two toxic gases. 21- 300 times higher than CO2, contributing to increase the risk of climate change.

Living with danger

' The thousand-year lesson of Vietnam and the world has proved: It should not be directed against nature, but must seek to avoid harm and exploit the beneficial effects to live peacefully with it. From this lesson, we fully believe that the Mekong Delta will 'live with climate change' as if it was 'living with floods', even turning this challenge into an opportunity to bring agriculture to new heights, if synchronously implementing response solutions such as: Researching, upgrading and perfecting irrigation systems in the direction of regulating salty and sweet traps, finding salt-resistant rice varieties, drought tolerance, deep flooding, hot weather and transfer changing the structure of crops and seasons in a way that is suitable to reality . - Prof. Dr. Vo Tong Xuan emphasized. 'It is important for managers to change their habits in developing rice plans. Must be based on the specific location of each locality to select the most suitable model '.

Even, according to Prof. Nguyen Sinh Huy, even in the case of SLR also has a positive impact on the agricultural sector in general and rice cultivation in particular. When SLR will create pressure to ' raise ' fresh water level, it will be a good opportunity to push fresh water from Tien river into Vam Co river system and from Hau river to Cai Lon river - Cai Be . It means capacity It is easier to transfer fresh water into the interior field in the Mekong Delta. Not to mention the impact of increasing the chances of increasing the water table, the reception of sea-brackish water from the sea is easier for aquaculture, the possibility of river-sea interaction will also be improved, creating cashew Better conditions for estuarine biodiversity. The new way of seeing climate change and SLR is not just a disaster!