Rain and flood in Central region: Why do not forecast rainfall in each area?

Forecast of rainfall is only given in the short, 1-3-hour forecast reports, said Dr. Hoang Phuc Lam - Deputy Director of the National Center for Meteorological Forecasting.

According to Mr. Lam, forecasting rainfall is a difficult problem not only in Vietnam but also worldwide. The reliability of the precipitation forecast of the most modern reference products such as radar, satellites and digital forecasting models is only reliable in the very short forecast, ie before a few hours.

Quang Nam has a long heavy rain, many places are deeply inundated.(Photo: Le Bang).

Therefore, the precipitation forecast is only given in extremely short forecasts, from 1 to 3 hours , but not in daily newsletters.

The deputy director of the National Center for Hydrometeorological Forecasting emphasized that according to the monitoring data up to this point, the rainfall in the Central region in the past 2 days has data surpassing the record according to the statistics of rainfall in some locations at the end of the rainy season.

Some places even surpass the record of the main rainy season. In particular, it happened after October 23 of the lunar calendar. According to experience, this day is the same as after the full moon of the seventh lunar month in the North will not rain.

Dr. Hoang Phuc Lam - Deputy Director of the National Center for Meteorological Forecasting.(Photo: TN&MT).

'It can be said that this rain has never happened in the past, it is necessary to have further studies to clarify. But initially it can be seen that these are obvious manifestations of climate change. That is, the rules of rain are no longer the same as before, ' said Mr. Lam.

On the cause of Da Nang inspired the heavy rain, deep and long flood, Mr. Lam explained due to the combined effect of 3 factors causing rain .

1. First , the north-east wind of the lower stratum after long static in the North has spilled very quickly into the Central region.
2. Second , the windbreak terrain of the Central region with the Truong Son Range in the West.
3. The third is the east wind to the southeast, adding moisture.

Da Nang has been flooded locally because it has suffered a very heavy rainfall in the short term, from 3-6h on December 9 at Da Nang station, it measured 287mm, at Cam Le station is 238mm.

After that, heavy rain with 30-50mm rain / hour is continuously happening in 24 hours. The intensity of rain is very large and lasting for 1 day has caused local flooding.

According to Dr. Hoang Phuc Lam, in this month, there will be many large-scale rain in Central provinces.

'We expect cold air this year to be strong, so in Central Vietnam in December, there will still be 1-2 large-scale heavy rains, likely to occur on rivers in the middle and south of Central Vietnam. ' he said.