Science predicts humans can set foot on Mars in 2038

In 2010, the current US President Obama gave a speech regarding NASA's plan to put a man on an asteroid by 2025. This marked the successor to the hope of sending a man to the Moon that President John F. Kennedy proposed after nearly 50 years.

12 years ago, the idea of ​​sending humans to another planet was considered impossible. Even setting a specific timeline is seen as absurd. 10 years later, in 2020, NASA's OSIRIS-Rex probe successfully landed on an ancient asteroid called Bennu and collected dust and pebbles on the surface. It is expected that in 2023, this ship will return to Earth.

Humans will reach the Asteroid Belt within the next 50 years.

Just recently, experts have predicted that human space missions to the Asteroid Belt could become a reality within the next 50 years, provided that humans need to set foot on Mars by 2038 This means that the future of space travel in the next few decades will not be far away.

A team at the US JPL Jet Propulsion Laboratory led by Jonathan Jiang has published findings on the impact of economic constraints on the future of space exploration. Their model is based on an economic analysis of the rate at which the cost of space travel has increased over time and the rate of technological progress since the beginning of the space age.

The author says that one of the key elements to doing a study on deep space exploration and crewed missions to other planets is a picture of Earth taken from Mars, by the rover. NASA's Curiosity Mars.

'From this perspective, Earth is a small planet covered in darkness. And our current understanding of physics suggests that we are stuck here with limited resources and climate change. And sooner or later, it is a danger to all of humanity,' Jiang said.

Jiang feels that, despite current technological prowess, people still 'behave like children'. And if another civilization visited Earth, they would be surprised to see armed humans engage in battle and kill each other.

Concerns about overpopulation, wars for resources, and even extinction have made the idea of ​​developing space colonies and finding new extraterrestrial homes increasingly realistic. chemical. Proponents of this solution feel that expanding the habitability of many planets will almost guarantee the long-term survival of humanity against all kinds of disasters that can strike the home planet.

Jiang also mentioned Professor Stephen Hawking's warning that humanity must leave Earth in the next 200 years if we are to survive.

This physicist believes that life on Earth is in danger of being wiped out when hypothesized to include an asteroid impact, AI takeover or even an alien invasion. He also added that overpopulation, war and climate change could cause humanity to self-destruct.

Humans must leave Earth in the next 200 years if we are to survive.

Hawking believes that gathering all of humanity in one place is too risky and that future generations need to form a new life in space. Carrying out such missions, however, requires effective planning, and Jiang's research team found several factors at play.

First, the economic factor is a prerequisite for making space travel possible. Since NASA was founded in 1958, researchers have delved into the agency's finances for the first time.

Over the past 50 years, NASA has recorded three strong budget injections. The first happened when the US and the Soviet Union entered the Space race. The second wave was in the 90s – regarding the decision to cooperate with private organizations to develop the space shuttle. In 1989, US President Bush Senior announced the Space Exploration Initiative, to encourage the signing of a new commercial space policy.

The climax was in 2018, when the US government released the 'National Space Exploration Activity Report' on the Artemis program with a mission to once again return humans to the Moon and also Mars.

The budget that the US government allocates to the military is up to 801 billion USD. In contrast, this figure for peaceful space exploration by NASA is only 24 billion USD. This means that most of the resources, intelligence, technology and money of the United States are used to develop arms,' Jiang said.

Technological advancement is the next factor influencing the field of space exploration. The report states that no one can deny that the technologies involved in space exploration will continue to evolve. Therefore, this is seen as an important advantage.

Jiang's research team estimates technology development through scientific articles published on the topic of space exploration in the US every year. By counting the number of papers, scientists can gauge the overall level of technological development in this complex field.

And as technology improves, the operating costs of a manned space mission can decrease, thereby reducing the investment these missions require. 'Space exploration is affected by the size of the investment budget. At the same time, it also depends on factors such as computer power to simulate the possibility of nuclear war, climate change and pandemic outbreaks that slow progress.

 Humans could reach Mars around 2038.

The final factor covered in the report is the radius of extraterrestrial human activity. The moon is the closest object to Earth, and astronauts have traveled there using spacecraft technology.

The next step humans will take is building a base on the Moon as part of NASA's Artemis mission and the Lunar Exploration Program. Establishing a base there will play an important role in preparing for crewed missions to Mars. After that, humans could reach Mars around 2038.

In the event this mission is successful, a base could be established on Mars to support exploration programs to other celestial bodies in the Solar System.

According to the article, if all goes well, humans could land on asteroids in 2073, Jupiter in 2103 and Saturn in 2132. 'The results so far suggest worlds in the system. Our sun throughout human history is merely information about the stars in the night sky. In the near future, everything will be clear and within our reach,' the research team said.