The upcoming La Nina could be weak and short-lived

Meteorologists predict that the La Nina phenomenon could appear early next year with a weak impact and only last for a short time.

The cool weather phenomenon La Nina may emerge in the coming months, but it is likely to be weak and short-lived due to the significant impact of soaring global temperatures, the United Nations (UN) reported on December 11. There is currently a 55% chance that La Nina conditions will emerge by the end of February, the UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said. The chances of the phenomenon occurring between February and April are similarly high.

The impact of La Nina is not enough to offset the impact of soaring global temperatures. (Photo: The peninsula Qatar).

Earlier this year, the WMO expected the return of La Nina to bring a slight cooling after months of record-breaking global temperatures, partly caused by its opposite, El Nino. The weather pattern affects the planet throughout the year from June 2023. But WMO director Celeste Saulo warned that La Nina could have a minimal impact after 2024, which is on track to be the hottest year on record.

'Even when La Nina occurs, its short-term cooling effect is not enough to offset the warming effect of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In the absence of both El Nino and La Nina since May, we have seen a series of extreme weather events, including record rainfall and flooding, which are becoming more common as climate conditions change ,' said Saulo.

La Nina is a natural climate phenomenon that causes a cooling of the ocean surface over large areas of the Pacific Ocean, accompanied by winds, rain, and changes in atmospheric pressure. In many locations, especially in the tropics, La Nina produces the opposite climate effects of El Nino , which warms the ocean surface, leading to drought in some parts of the world and promoting heavy rains in others.

While both are natural events, the WMO stressed they are occurring within the broader context of human-caused climate change, which is increasing global temperatures, making extreme weather more severe, and affecting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns.