The La Nina phenomenon may replace El Nino this year

The US National Weather Service predicts El Nino will weaken in the next few months, giving way to the La Nina phenomenon that could cool global temperatures.

The development of La Nina has many major impacts on weather in the US in particular and around the world in general. It could temporarily slow the global warming that began about nine months ago when El Nino first took effect. La Nina also famously promotes a strong, destructive hurricane season in the Atlantic, while also increasing dry conditions in Southern California and the US midwest. It tends to moderate global temperatures. While it won't end the decade-long warming of the planet, La Nina could reduce the extreme levels of warming that scientists have recently observed.

Floods in Los Angeles on February 5. (Photo: Washington Post).

January 2024 is the warmest month in Earth's history. This is also the 8th consecutive month of record high temperatures. It also marks the end of a 12-month period in which the planet warmed a worrying 1.5 degrees Celsius above the 19th century average, before fossil fuel consumption became widespread, according to the agency. Copernicus Climate Change Service, the European Union's (EU) climate change agency

What are El Nino and La Nina?

Whether Earth's weather is affected by El Nino or La Nina depends on conditions along the equatorial region in the Pacific Ocean. As the east-to-west trade winds weaken or even reverse, warm ocean waters pool along the surface of the central and eastern Pacific, leading to the El Nino phenomenon and a knock-on effect on the ocean. weather around the world, including warmer-than-normal conditions in the southern United States, including Southern California, a weakened Atlantic hurricane season, and wildfire drought in Indonesia and southern Africa.

Climate scientists' predictions for the coming months

Climate forecasters at the US National Weather Service on February 8 reported that warmth in the eastern and central eastern Pacific decreased in January and so did the wind patterns associated with El Nino. . Meanwhile, climate prediction models indicate that El Nino will continue to be weak during the spring months. According to predictions, there is a 79% chance that "neutral" conditions, absent both El Nino and La Nina phenomena, will occur from April to June 2024.

The team emphasized that it can be difficult to predict how El Nino or La Nina will behave during the spring month because the pattern often shifts around that time, making predicting trends more challenging. But a rapid shift to La Nina is quite common after a record strong El Nino period, similar to the current El Nino period. According to Tom Di Liberto, a climate scientist at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, similar examples happened during the strong El Nino periods of 1982 - 1983 and 1997 - 1998.

Regardless of how quickly it weakens, El Nino is likely to continue to influence global climate patterns for the next few months. "Even though it's past its climax, it still has an impact ," Di Liberto said.

Impact when switching to La Nina phenomenon

Scientists will closely monitor how the transition from the global warming pattern of El Nino to the cooling effects of La Niña may impact average temperatures around the world. That could help answer the essential question of whether the rate of global warming and climate change is accelerating.

It's possible that a transition to La Niña will moderate global temperatures in 2024 and prevent numbers from exceeding 2023, proving the hypothesis that 2023 marks a path to stabilization for global temperatures, according to Gavin Schmidt. Director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

But if 2024 ends warmer than scientists predict, despite the persistence of a La Nina pattern, that could add to further evidence the system has changed. Climate change also provides additional data and opportunities to understand how global warming may affect El Nino and La Nina. Climate scientists still don't have a clear answer, but they suspect the frequency of strong El Nino and La Nina events will likely increase over the course of the next century.

La Nina replaces El Nino: What impact will Vietnam have?

Particularly for Vietnam, the appearance of La Nina can cause more storms and tropical depressions to appear. In the Central and Southern regions, we will face heavy rains and more frequent floods.

People walk through flooded areas in Chuong My district, Hanoi. (Source: AAP).

In an interview with VnExpress in February 2024, Associate Professor, Dr. Pham Thi Thanh Nga, Director of the Institute of Hydrometeorology and Climate Change, said that typical La Niña episodes occurred in 1998-2000, 2007-2008, 2010-2011 and 2020-2022.

In particular, the 38-day cold spell in January-February 2008 caused 180,000 hectares of rice, nearly 110,000 livestock died, and an estimated loss of 400 billion VND.

The 2020-2022 La Nina period also recorded many damages. Of which, in 2020, the country had 16/22 types of natural disasters, with 14 storms and tropical depressions; 120 flash floods and landslides; 265 storms, tornadoes, lightning. left 357 people dead or missing, with total damage of over 39,960 billion VND.

In 2022 alone, natural disasters in our country have left 175 people dead or missing, with economic losses of nearly 19,500 billion VND.