Why Hurricane Milton Made Meteorologists Almost Cry

Hurricane Milton formed and strengthened into a Category 5 storm in just one day. This strengthening process may be part of a complex storm pattern due to climate change.

"Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes ever recorded in West-Central Florida , " NBC News quoted forecasters as saying.

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Hurricane Milton intensified at an alarming rate.

"Hurricane Milton could be an 'unprecedented' storm , " CNN reported on the storm's path.

According to the US National Hurricane Center, the term "rapid intensification" describes an increase in sustained wind speeds of at least 56 km/h over a 24-hour period.

Hurricane Milton obliterated that minimum, with a new concept called 'extreme rapid intensification.' The storm 's maximum sustained winds increased by 90 mph in about 25 hours, according to the nonprofit research group Climate Central.

"It's horrible!"

Meteorologists were glued to their computers on the morning of October 7, watching virtual data provided by an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter over and over again. Each time, they saw wind speeds in Milton's eye increase, indicating that the storm was becoming more intense by the minute, according to The New York Times.

"This is an incredible, incredible, incredible storm," said NBC 6 South Florida hurricane specialist John Morales, choking up. "I'm sorry. It's terrifying!"

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Weather expert John Morales gets emotional while reporting on Hurricane Milton.

Global warming makes hurricanes more dangerous by providing the ingredients they need to intensify, including warm sea surface temperatures and high humidity in the atmosphere.

Climate Central posted on X on October 7: "Warming oceans due to human-caused climate change are fueling stronger tropical storms."

When a hurricane forms, warm water and suitable atmospheric conditions act as additional energy sources, helping the storm speed up and become stronger along its path.

Because a warmer atmosphere can also hold more moisture, storms are more likely to dump heavy rainfall on land. As a result, climate-change-induced storms could cause more severe and destructive flooding.

Milton, which is expected to make landfall on Florida's Gulf Coast on the evening of October 9, has been moving through unusually warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico. Much of the ocean basin is above 80 degrees Fahrenheit, with some parts of the gulf as much as 4 degrees above normal, according to data from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The higher temperatures in the gulf also helped strengthen Hurricane Helene before it made landfall in Florida's Big Bend less than two weeks ago.

Unpredictable

A 2023 study published in the journal Scientific Reports found that tropical cyclones in the Atlantic were likely to intensify about 29% faster from 2001 to 2020 than from 1971 to 1990.

Scientists have noted other recent examples of rapid intensification, including Hurricane Harvey in 2017, Hurricane Laura in 2020, Hurricane Ida in 2021, and Hurricane Idalia last year. In 2019, Hurricane Dorian's peak winds increased from 150 mph to 186 mph in nine hours. Hurricane Ian also underwent two rapid intensifications before making landfall in Florida.

Although the process is well documented, rapid intensification remains difficult to predict. Scientists know the ingredients needed to trigger the phenomenon, but predicting exactly when and how it will happen—and what exactly will trigger it—remains elusive.

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People fill sandbags on Fort Myers Beach, Florida, in preparation for Hurricane Milton.

Milton is expected to weaken slightly before making landfall, but the storm's impacts will be severe. Storm surge warnings are in effect for Florida's Gulf Coast, including the Tampa Bay area, where life-threatening storm surges of up to 12 feet (3.7 m) are expected. As many as 15 million people are under flood warnings across the state.

The storm warning has prompted a series of shutdowns. Tampa Bay International Airport will stop flights at 9 a.m. local time. Schools in more than 20 counties are scheduled to close on Oct. 8. The University of Florida and several other colleges have canceled classes this week.

Local officials have issued widespread mandatory evacuation orders for many communities in Florida, including parts of Lee, Hillsborough and Sarasota counties.

Florida is still reeling from Hurricane Helene, and Governor Ron DeSantis promised on October 7 that there would be a round-the-clock effort to clear the debris before Milton arrives. DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 51 counties ahead of Milton's landfall.