Challenges before the climate conference

The UN climate change summit opening today may lead to a global agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions, but countries will have to overcome many obstacles before reaching get consensus.

The UN-led climate change summit from December 7 to 18 in the Danish capital Copenhagen will focus on efforts to sign an agreement to prevent global warming. This agreement will replace the Kyoto Protocol (expired in 2012). The goal of every effort to reduce emissions is to prevent global temperatures from exceeding 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.

Speaking at an international conference on climate change in London on October 21, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said world leaders must reach an agreement to prevent global warming. If the Copenhagen summit did not lead to the birth of an agreement on emissions reduction, the world not only lost hundreds of thousands of lives every year due to droughts and floods, but also suffered a crisis. The most serious economic crisis in recent decades. Global GDP will fall by 20%. This level of economic damage is greater than the losses caused by the two world wars and the Great Depression crisis.

The field cracks due to drought in Lahiripur, India on December 3.Scientists warn that drought will occur more frequently and more severely due to rising global temperatures.Photo: AP.

Many organizations protect the environment from tropical storm Ketsana in August to illustrate the tremendous impact of climate change. Terrible storms like Ketsana will appear more and more by the warming of the earth. A United Nations report - released last week - shows climate-related phenomena, such as ice in the Arctic or increasing ocean concentrations of oceans, are happening with speed. The level is much faster than the science prediction.

However, until mid-November negotiations were in a standstill because rich countries did not want to accept strict commitments to reduce emissions or provide billions of dollars to poor countries to help them. This country adapts to the effects of climate change and limits the use of fossil fuels such as gasoline and coal.

Even the US wants every country to set its own goal of cutting emissions. After the goal is adopted by the international community through each country, laws must be enacted to ensure that the goal will be implemented. The rich country said that the new agreement must include legally binding provisions for developing countries. These provisions do not focus on emissions that will be cut, but emphasize practical "actions" such as phasing out coal in industrial production and investing in clean energy forms.

Meanwhile, most developing countries want to retain the basic provisions of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. These provisions do not provide any specific requirements for developing countries, but are forced to 37 richest countries cut emissions. Poor countries also want to receive financial and technological support from rich countries to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels. During negotiations in Barcenola (Spain) in early November, developing countries warned they would leave the negotiating table if the new agreement does not require rich countries to cut emissions.

Smoke rises from Belchatow thermal power plant in Poland.This is the largest thermal power plant in Europe.Coal burning activities and other forms of fossil fuels are the leading cause of increased carbon emissions.Photo: Reuters.

The situation became more complicated after the press reported that the Danish government sent proposals in the draft agreement to countries. The proposals emphasize that global emissions must be reduced by 50% by 2050. However, the Danish government has confirmed that they only send reference text. Even so, developing countries still claim they will not accept a 50% cut rate as it will harm the economy. Leaders of China, South Africa, Brazil and India can issue separate drafts to replace the Danish proposal.

Then in a move that surprised the world opinion, on November 26, both China and the US (each created 20% of global emissions) together announced the goal of cutting emissions. The White House announced US President Barack Obama will pledge to cut 17% of emissions by 2020 compared to 2005 levels at the Copenhagen conference. China claims a 40-45% reduction in emissions on gross domestic product (GDP) by 2020 compared to 2005. This means that emissions correspond to each yuan (or USD) that This country will make by 2020 a reduction of 40-45% compared to 2005.

On December 3, it was India's turn to announce that it would cut emissions by 25% by 2020. However, Indian Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh stressed that this goal serves Indian interests. Degree and not subject to international law.

Negotiators in Copenhagen will have to decide a problem: Modify, expand the terms of the Kyoto Protocol or create a full agreement with completely new terms? It is likely that they will have to discuss emission reduction targets for developing countries. Some of the world's leading experts on the environment are pessimistic about the possibility of a new agreement, but many politicians, including British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, believe the miracle will happen.