New forecast on the solar cycle: fewer black spots, but not necessarily less active

A group of experts have made predictions about the next cycle of the sun, suggesting that the 24th cycle will peak at May 2013 with the number of black spots below average. Led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and funded by NASA, the team consists of 12 members from nine different research institutes and government agencies. Their forecast suggests that the sun will be in a state of near-quietness for at least another year before returning to normal.

'If our forecast is correct, the solar cycle 24 will have a maximum of 90 black points, the lowest number of all cycles since the 16th cycle with 78 black points in 1928,' lead. Doug Biesecker, president of NOAA's space forecasting center.

People tend to use words like 'weak' or 'light' to describe a cycle like this, but these words can be misleading to listeners. 'Even a below-average cycle is likely to cause harsh cosmic weather,' Biesecker said. 'For example, the terrible geomagnetic storm in 1859 appeared in a solar cycle with the same intensity as the 2011 cycle predicted.

The sun image is obtained from NASA's STEREO twin satellite. (Photo: NASA)

The storm in 1859 was also called the "Carrington Event" after the astronomer Richard Carrington, who witnessed a trail of light separate from the Sun's surface - igniting the telegraph office and emitting Arctic light. so clear that people can read the newspaper in the middle of the night. A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences indicates that if a similar storm were to occur today, it could cost between $ 1,000 and $ 2,000 billion for high-tech infrastructure and people. It will take 4 to 10 years to completely overcome the consequences. Meanwhile, the actual Hurricane Katrina only caused losses from 80 to 125 billion USD.

The latest recent forecast coincides with a forecast released in 2007, when a group of researchers believed that the minimum in the solar cycle would fall in March 2008 and then have a maximum. strong in 2011 or extremely weak in 2012. There are many different forecasts for the current solar cycle activity graph, and researchers are eagerly waiting for the sun to prove which forecast that right.

'There seems to be no exact forecast,' Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center (MSFC) at Greenbelt, NASA's chief representative in the research group, said. 'The sun is moving in a very strange and interesting way.'

In the graph that shows the number of black marks above, the peak measured by the most recent solar cycle (cycle 23) is displayed in blue, and the peak is projected by scientists in the next cycle. Here (24) is displayed in red. (Photo: NOAA / Center for Space Weather Forecasting.)

Astronomers initially noticed the mid-19th century solar cycle. Graphs showing the number of sunspots shaped like a cradle's activity, going up and down with a cycle of approximately 11 years. . Maximum and minimum forecasts are difficult because cycles range from 9 to 14 years. Some are extremely high, but others are low.Minima is usually very short, only lasts for a year or two, but sometimes they take longer. In the 17th century, the sun fell into a 70-year silent period without black marks, which was the Maunder Minimum period and is still a mystery to scientists.

Currently, the solar cycle is in the minimum stage - the lowest point in the past century. In 2008 and 2009, the Sun set a Space Age record of low number of black points and low solar radiation. The sun has spent more than two years without light.

'In our scientific career, we have never seen a similar phenomenon,' Pesnell said. 'The minimum period in the sun's activity graph is longer than we expected in 2007.'

The average annual number of black spots varies from 1610 to 2000. Researchers believe that the forthcoming solar cycle will be similar to the peak in 1928, marked in red on the map. Marketing. (Photo: NASA / MSFC)

However, in recent months, the sun has returned to normal signals. Small black spots and money-black spots (proto-sunspot) are happening unannounced with increasing frequency.Giant plasma particles on the sun's surface are regaining strength and drifting towards the equator of the sun . Wave astronomers have discovered that the increase in solar waves is light but obvious. All of this is a sign that the 24th cycle is 'waking up' and is the basis for proving the team's new forecast is correct.

According to the forecast, the sun's view will not have much change at least in the next year. A study suggests that this is good news because the minimum in the solar cycle has more interesting things than people think. This inactivity has a major impact on the Earth's climate, enabling our planet to cool and shrink. Universe garbage accumulates in Earth orbit due to less aerodynamic traction. Fewer storms from the solar wind around the Earth. Cosmic rays, which are still pushed back by the solar wind, now enter the space near the Earth. There are also many other side effects that may be discovered as long as the sun is still as calm as it is today.

Meanwhile, the sun still operates at its own discretion, regardless of human concern. Researchers admit, there will certainly be many more surprises, and there are groups that will make adjustments in their forecasts.

'Mark May 2013 in your calendar,' Pesnell said. 'But remember, just use a pencil.'

According to the Marshall Space Flight Center.