Scientists reject climate doubts

Researchers at the Research Center Geesthacht GKSS and the University of Bern have surveyed the frequency of warmer years on average from 1880 to 2006. Result: The increase in warmer years is observed. since 1990 is not a random thing.

Between 1880 and 2006 the annual global average temperature was about 15 ° C. However, in the years after 1990 the density of years with high average temperatures tends to increase.
GKSS Research Center poses the question: is it a coincidence that the warmest 13 years observed after 1990, or does this high density indicate external influences?

Capability calculation

With the help of 'Monte Carlo Model' researchers include Dr. Eduardo Zorita and Professor Hans von Storch at the GKSS Research Center - together with Professor Thomas Stocker of the University of Bern, said that the upward trend of warm years after 1990 cannot be a coincidence and they conclude that this phenomenon may be dominated by external factors.

The fact that the warmest 13 years since 1990 can happen randomly after 1990 has the potential to be no larger than 1 / 10,000.

This ability can be illustrated by a 'bloated' probability game: the ability to correspond to a coin toss and 14 consecutive backstroke attempts.

The climate is more complicated than a game

Dr. Eduardo Zorita of GKSS explains the challenges to his calculations: 'To be able to clearly identify and analyze the climate system as well as the interaction between the sea, the soil, the atmosphere and the activities of people. , the climate comparison with a game is quite limp. A series of warm and cold years of course does not work in a simple theory like '0 or 1'.

An example: After a warm year, milder years often follow, because the sea retains heat.This natural law also needs to be calculated.

Zorita concluded: 'Our research is only statistically significant and cannot determine the cause of the continuous warming years, but is completely consistent with IPCC results that release greenhouse gases Increasing is the main reason for recent global warming. '

Refer:

Zorita et al.Không có kích cỡ là sự hiện thời của thời gian các chiều dài?Geophysical Research Letters, 2008;35 (24): L24706 DOI: 10.1029 / 2008GL036228