This year's storm may be more devastating

After last year's hurricane season with record-breaking attacks, scientists predict that this year's hurricane season could cause more disasters than the average of many years including landslides and storms hitting the shore.

Two hurricanes El Nino and La Nina ( Source: nasa.gov ) Scientists at Colorado National University across the Pacific also issued a similar warning to the US and Caribbean coast, BBC days. 6/5 said.

According to the Vietnam Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (IMH), most models of statistics and motivation suggest that ENSO's intermediate state (ie between El Nino and La Nina) has returned and forecasted the conditions. ENSO's intermediary in the tropical Pacific exists until the end of 2006. IMH also identifies the next three-month climatic condition of ENSO.

That is, the number of tropical cyclones (storms and tropical depressions) operating in the Pacific Northwest region (ie near or in our waters) will be approximately average over the years from 1965 to 2005.

From now until August, besides 3-4 times of cold air, IMH predicts that there are about 7-8 tropical cyclones operating in northwestern TB, of which 4 are active in the South China Sea.

However, like every year, IMH's analysis does not mention the severity of the tropical cyclone. 'Such extreme phenomena are difficult to predict,' said Duong Lien Chau, deputy director of the National Center for Meteorological & Hydrological Forecasting.

Last year, IMH did not give any warnings about unusual weather and storms. Meanwhile, according to a report published on December 6, 2005 at the UN climate change conference, 2005 was judged to be the hottest, most stormy and driest year ever recorded on the planet. fine. The US Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA) said the global average temperature in 2005 increased slightly compared to 1998.

Global economic losses in 2005 caused by storm surpassed 200 billion USD. Meanwhile, the loss from typhoon in 2004 was only 145 billion USD.

Global warming makes storms more intense

A scientist said he could not give concrete evidence of the severe trend of the season this year, but retrospective statistics allow him to assess that possibility very easily. The first evidence he cited was the recent occurrence of Typhoon Chanchu with the greatest intensity in May of the year since the history of typhoons recorded in the South China Sea.

' Qin appeared the storms did not change ' - Ms. Yang Lien Chau said- ' But it seems that the energy of the storms has increased despite no official statistics '. Dr. Emanuel said that the energy of the storms doubled in the past 30 years and that natural disasters are increasingly severe.

It is no coincidence that this topic was recently discussed at the American Meteorological Association (AMS) held in Montery, California, after a study by Kerry Emanuel (professor of gas at the Public Academy Massachusetts technology, published in The Nature, shows a link between global warming and the emergence of more powerful storms.

The report of GS K.Emanuel showed that the results of measuring sea surface temperature from 1970 up to 0.4oC and the activity of many thousands of storms during this period also increased in intensity.

Vietnam's East Sea region also recorded sea level rise in temperature and the number of strong storms in total of 430 attacks since 1961.

In another study published in the journal Science, 150 years ago, sea level has risen more than twice as fast as in previous centuries.

Prof. Emanuel points out the relationship between these two phenomena by demonstrating that the energy of the storm is very closely related to sea temperature. 'Even if I go back to the 19th century, I also see a connection between these two parameters,' Dr. Emanuel said.

According to GS. Thomas Stocker, University of Bern, Switzerland, the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the air is now 30% higher than the number ever recorded. And methane gas is 130% higher.

Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Sinh, Chairman of Vietnam Association for Nature & Environment Protection, said that people are partly responsible for the increasingly intense natural disasters. ' Human impact greatly affects the law of nature ' - Dr. Sinh said - ' Russian Academy of Verasky right from the 60s of the last century warned that human impact on nature can be compared with impact of geological fluctuations '.

QD