We could start building a colony on Mars with just 22 people!

We don't know exactly when that might happen, but establishing a colony on Mars is clearly on the agenda for humanity. Elon Musk sees 2029 as the earliest date, while most researchers believe it won't happen before 2050 at the earliest. In the meantime, though, it's not too early to start thinking about how many people it would take to establish and operate a colony on the red planet.

In a new study, researchers from George Mason University found that it would take just 22 people to establish a colony on Mars. This is a much lower number than other studies. Previously, researchers had assumed that you would need at least 100 people. But the authors of the new study claim that their assumption is more accurate and realistic than previous studies.

'Human groups are complex systems where the outcome is not the sum of the parts but their synergy,' study author Anamaria Berea, professor of data science and computing, told The Register.

In 2012, Elon Musk proposed sending 80,000 people to Mars within 15 to 20 years to complete the Mars colonization plan, but now it seems impossible, because Musk has not yet been able to successfully take humans out of the atmosphere. (Photo: ZME).

In 2022, a research paper concluded that it would take 110 people to establish a self-sustaining colony on Mars. But that's not the only estimate. In 2003, another study also suggested that 100 people would be needed. However, that may be overkill.

Berea and her team at George Mason University said previous papers did not consider the social and psychological aspects of the colony-forming process. They also said previous research did not consider how individuals interact in space.

To find a more realistic answer, the researchers created a simulation model of a Mars colony . Specifically, the simulation focused on the number of people needed to create a viable colony. The researchers also looked at what features would contribute to its success. They used data from previous studies, such as surveys conducted by astronauts on the International Space Station.

The researchers ran five simulations, each of which would replicate the life of a colony for 28 years on Earth. For each simulation, they varied factors such as the number of people and the personalities of the participants. They found that 22 was the minimum number needed to build and maintain a colony on Mars. Ultimately, the team also found that people with agreeable personalities were more likely to thrive in the colony and help its overall survival.

The environment on Mars is extremely harsh, facing such an environment, the technical difficulty of implementing the plan is completely different from that on Earth. In order to successfully establish a sustainable living base on Mars, there are many technical challenges that need to be overcome. (Photo: Grunge).

Agreeableness is one of the five main dimensions in the "Five Factor Model of Personality ," also known as the Big Five personality traits.  This model is commonly used in psychology to describe human personality and is a widely accepted framework for understanding personality differences.

Agreeableness refers to how kind, cooperative, tolerant, and considerate a person is. People high in agreeableness tend to be more trusting, empathetic, and willing to help others, while people low in agreeableness may be more skeptical, critical, or competitive.

The model further suggests that people with difficult and competitive personalities are more likely to fail in the Mars colonization mission and may also die earlier than other members, which in turn could jeopardize the overall success of the mission.

Sending large numbers of people and equipment to Mars will require a large number of launches and launch vehicles. Rocket technology and aerospace technology are still an expensive industry, and the cost of transporting rockets remains prohibitive. (Photo: Allthatsinteresting).

It's always difficult to predict how humans will behave. This is especially true in a different and challenging environment like Mars. But overall, the study provides us with some valuable information that can be applied as we prepare to send humans to Mars. The study highlights the importance of focusing on the meaning of different personalities and how they interact with each other. We may or may not start building a colony on Mars in the next few years—but it doesn't hurt to be prepared.