Comments on carbon dioxide emission reductions are overly optimistic

According to a commentary on a new study in Nature on April 3, the reduction of global carbon dioxide emissions (CO ₂ ) in the next century will become a much bigger challenge than what we can imagine.

The authors of the University of Colorado at Boulder, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, and McGill University in Montreal said the Multi-Governmental Council on Climate Change (IPCC) has evaluated Inadequate technological challenges in reducing CO2 emissions. The study, titled "Dangerous judgments," concluded that the IPCC was overly optimistic when it said that even without the work of policymakers, society would develop and operate its New technology to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to surprising levels in the future.

The authors commented in the Nature: 'The question of whether technological innovations are necessary is an extra question - it is certainly necessary. The question needs to be raised, to what extent should policies need to focus decisively to promote those innovations. ' IPCC is playing a risky problem by claiming that spontaneous advances in technology will reduce most of the burden in achieving the goal of minimizing future CO2 emissions, without focusing on the lawsuits and enough for these innovations to happen.

Main author Roger Pielke Jr. According to the University of Colorado, 'carbon intensity' - carbon dioxide emissions per unit of energy consumption - is higher than what the IPCC predicted. The reason is due to the speed of rapid economic development. In Asia, for example, the demand for energy-rich industries is met by traditional fossil fuel technology, and this process is expected to continue for decades to eventually shift to Africa.

When determining the amount of reduction needed to stabilize CO2 concentrations, IPCC divides changes in future carbon dioxide emissions into two groups: spontaneous changes (lack of climate policies) and policy changes. This division does not clarify all the challenges in stabilizing the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The commentary in the Nature indicates that to stabilize CO2 concentrations at 500 parts per million (compared to the current concentration of 390), the IPCC scenario outlines that 57% to 96% of the total carbon is separated. The energy supply in the next century will happen spontaneously.

Renewable energy sources such as wind can help reduce carbon dioxide emissions.(Photo: Bob Heson, copyright UCAR)

Pielke said urgently: 'According to the IPCC report, the majority of the reduction needed to stabilize CO2 concentrations is expected to occur spontaneously. Not only will this not happen with current policies, but we are moving in the opposite direction . We think that such statements in science blind us in practice and can distort the ability to develop effective policies'.

NCAR co-author Tom Wigley notes that the stability of atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases is a prime target in the 1992 United Nations Climate Change Framework Convention, already Approved by most member countries, including the United States.

Wigley emphasized: 'This level of stability is a more daunting challenge than many people realize. We need to remove carbon from the roots of the energy system. Global energy demand is expected to increase rapidly, and this huge demand must be addressed by non-carbon energy sources - sources that do not use fossil fuels or must retain all carbon emissions. waste. '

Unlike IPCC's comments on future spontaneous technological innovations, the authors of the Nature commentary start with a series of 'freezing technologies' as a boundary in the perspective of Energy technology is expected to stay at the current level.

Co-author Christopher Green of McGill University said: 'With the freezing technology method, a full range of carbon-free technology challenges is put into focus'.

Pielke emphasized: 'Our message should be viewed more optimistically than pessimistic. Because only with an insightful view of challenges, can we hope to implement effective policies. We hope that these analyzes are a step towards that lucid vision. '