Forecast is ... forecast

Storm No. 9 (Ketsana) has caused heavy casualties and widespread damage in Central Vietnam. This is a strong storm but has an uncomplicated path: from the Philippines towards the Central Vietnam. It is regularly monitored and forecasted by meteorological centers in the UK, USA, Japan, China, Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam .

But after the storm passed, due to the heavy consequences in their locality, the Quang Ngai provincial leader had urged that the Central Hydrometeorological Center (NCHMF) had misjudged the storm to Quang Ngai. forecast in Quang Tri!

Wrong forecast - it's a pretty heavy sentence for storm reporters. But, unlike the catastrophe of Chanchu in May 2006, public opinion and many media outlets did not give a 'condemnation' to NCHMF. Because, the data on Ketsana of Youth shows that the NCHMF forecast is not much different from the forecasts of modern storm warning centers of the US, UK, Japan and the region.

For example, more than 12 hours before the storm center entered Quang Ngai, the US storm warning center (JTWC, a reputable storm forecasting agency) identified Ketsana as Quang Tri. Many other centers in the region also forecast that. On that night, the group of Tuoi Tre reporters in Hue and Quang Tri were warned from the newsroom: ready to switch to a state of emergency! But, only a few hours later, the JTWC and the above centers suddenly diverted their forecast to Quang Nam and Quang Ngai. At that time Ketsana was near the shore.

It is the error in the forecast (though in this case it is not too large) plus the subjectivity of many agencies and localities in Quang Ngai that have made this provincial leader ' angry '.

But the error of Ketsana is nothing compared to the extremely bizarre and chaotic forecast for Parma - the storm is now entering the South China Sea:

- On the afternoon of October 2, JTWC centers (USA) and TSR (UK) forecast that Typhoon Parma will turn to the East Sea, while NMC centers (China), CWB (Taiwan), HKO (Hong Kong) ) reverse projection. JMA (Japan), KMA (Korea) cautiously stood in the middle! Vietnam does not forecast anything.

On October 2, centers forecast the path of Typhoon Parma in two opposite directions

- On Saturday afternoon, October 3, all of the centers mentioned ' unanimously ' predicted that Typhoon Parma would not go to the South China Sea, but to the west. Vietnam started to report but was very ' cautious '.

October 3 forecast: Parma storm does not enter the South China Sea

- Then on October 4 morning, all the centers mentioned above suddenly turned around 180 degrees: Parma will turn to the South China Sea!

October 4 forecast: Parma storms towards the South China Sea

I don't know where this storm will go today, because many storm journalists are still short of ' holding lights in front of Parma '. This suggests that there are predictions of errors, from minor errors such as Ketsana to a single-heavenly error like Parma. And no meteorologist or center, no matter how modern, can accurately predict storms. Therefore, warning and remote prevention are always set as required No. 1 to minimize damage to the community.