The earth may halt heating up in the next 10 years

According to a recent study, global warming may be interrupted in the next 10 years and a 30-year natural cycle in the Atlantic Ocean is the cause of the period of 'pause'. 'supposedly starting from 1999.

Researchers say the cycle could continue to "sink" the heat into the deep sea over the next decade. However, they also warned that the Earth is still warming rapidly when the cycle changes from "cooling" to "warming up".

The ocean currents in the Atlantic are thought to cause 30-year cycles.

Special elements

According to the Intergovernmental Committee on Climate Change, the average global temperature increased by about 0.05 degrees Celsius / decade in the period from 1998 to 2012, while if the temperature from 1951 to 2012, the average temperature The flask increased by 0.12 degrees Celsius / decade, indicating a difference in the temperature increase between the past and in the past decade.

Previously, there were many assumptions made about the cause of the special disruption of global warming while CO ₂ emissions were on record.

In the explanations given, volcanoes have been increasing since 2000. According to new research by scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, California, volcanic eruptions has spread small sulfur dust particles into the air, where these molecules act as a mirror reflecting the sun's rays and thereby preventing temperature rise on the Earth's surface.

Illustration.Source: Nationalgeographic

Another factor is that solar radiation is becoming unusually over the years with unexplained causes, typically the weak solar radiation intensity that has lasted for the last 13 years.

And the most noticeable cause is the famous El Nino and La Nina phenomenon, in which 1998 was the time when El Nino was the most raging, so that year the temperature increased to a record (14.46 degrees). C). In contrast, La Nina phenomenon has made the years become cooler.

Illustration of rising water

In 2013, a study suggested that the rising water cycle (cold water deep in the sea was pushed to the surface by the wind) and submerged water (water above the surface submerged into the deep) in the Pacific changed the work. increase in temperature. But recently the American Journal of Science published a study that shifted its focus from the Pacific to the Atlantic.

Cycle in the Atlantic Ocean

The team, led by Professor Ka Kit Tung of the University of Washington, collected evidence that the water sample was taken from a depth of 2,000 meters from a system of devices called 'float Argo' that showed a cycle. 30 years has caused global warming to "take a break" by "sinking" most of the heat into the ocean floor. Professor Tung commented that 90% of the Earth's temperature is stored in the ocean due to limited capacity to retain heat in the air.

Illustration.Source: Nationalgeographic

Mr. Tung stressed: "The Atlantic Ocean is" warming up, not the Pacific Ocean. " The key factor for this assertion is the salinity of the seawater, which occurs when salty and dense water is due. there is evaporation, from tropical waters flowing to the North Atlantic Ocean, meeting the thinner waters (less salt) and thus 'sinking' deep and bringing the temperature.

Professor Tung further analyzed: 'During the warm period, fast-moving ocean currents carry more water from the Caribbean to the North Atlantic, "warming up" the surface water, so the ice melts and fades. gradually making water more diluted, this phenomenon after a few decades will create a 30-year cooling cycle '.

Historical data in the Atlantic shows that every 30 years the temperature rises followed by 30 years with a more pleasant heat.

Researchers have recognized that the period of Earth's warming interrupted from 1945 to 1975 stems from the "heat-sucking" of the cycle, which has even caused concern about a new ice age. .

However, since 1976, this cycle has suddenly changed and contributed to the warming of the Earth when heat was retained at the surface more. Since 2000 the "cooling" cycle and global temperature have not increased since the record of 1998.

Along with data from the "Argo buoy" device , Professor Tung checked the temperature in central England for 350 years. He believes that this confirms the 70-year cycle of warm and cold episodes. These past data make him optimistic: 'We can have another 10 years or less, historically, we are in the middle of this cycle.'

Professor Tung also added: 'After 2006, salinity in the Atlantic ocean water was lowered along with ice melting in the Arctic and it is currently in slow progress. Once it is below the long-term average, the next period will be a rapid warming. '

Warming comes back

Several other researchers in the field have recognized Tung's statistics as part of increasingly compelling evidence that the Atlantic plays a role in disrupting this rise.

Illustration.Source: Nationalgeographic

Professor Reto Knutti of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology recently published a review of all the arguments related to disruption: 'I see studies complement each other and they all emphasize that Natural changes in the ocean and atmosphere contribute to a long-term change in human impact. A deeper understanding of how to change helps to better understand the time of disruption of the past as well as the anticipation of the future. '

But Mr. Reto Knutti still mentioned the possibility of a sudden warming up due to the two phenomena of El Nino and La Nina, which have a great influence on the temperature of the Earth, will "get excited to return to action" in any year still very difficult to predict, in addition to the Sun's activity, greenhouse gas emissions .

Other scientists argue that the Atlantic hypothesis seems interesting but needs more time, Dr. Jonathan Robson of the University of Reading (UK) said: 'We have to wait 15-20 years to know. What is happening'.