The threat of climate change for Vietnam and from Vietnam

In the past few decades, humanity has witnessed and scientists all over the world have been constantly alerting the unusual fluctuations of global climate.

The phenomenon of the surface of the earth, first of all the atmosphere and the atmosphere constantly heating up, disturbing the ecological environment, has been imposing many implications for human life and the earth's biosphere. Global research work has been promoted by scientists at well-known centers around the world since the early 1990s.

The UN-convened international conference was held at Jio de Janero in 1992. The conference adopted a framework agreement and an international action program to save the rapid 'deterioration' of Earth's atmosphere, considered to be the main cause of increased risk.

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been established, attracting thousands of international scientists.

Many workshops and reports have been organized and published. At the Kyoto conference in 1997, an international protocol (Kyoto Protocol) was adopted. By the beginning of February 2005, the Protocol was ratified by the head of state 165 and entered into force on February 10, 2005.

Vietnam approved the Kyoto Protocol on September 25, 2005. Recently, the 12th conference of 159 countries participated in the climate framework agreement, the second session of the parties to the Kyoto Protocol was organized by the United Nations in Nairobi, Kenya.

This article deals with the relationship between constantly rising surface temperature, fast melting ice in the two poles and at the top of high mountain ranges, the rising sea level is the leading line being International public opinion is of special interest.

IPCC reports and many of the world's most reputable research centers recently announced provide us with important information and forecasts:

People struggle with flooding (Photo: TP)

- The measurement and research data show that the average temperature on the surface of the earth warms nearly 10C since 1920 to 2005, the fastest increase in the period from 1980 to present (increase from 0.20C to 10C)

- Perpetual ice on both ends of the polar and high mountains dissipate dramatically. Try some key news:

- In Antarctica, in March 2002, 500 billion tons of ice sheets disintegrated into thousands of pieces right before the eyes of scientists .

- In the Arctic, melting ice reaches a record level. In the summer of 2002, Greenland ice melt was twice as high as 1992, the area of ​​melting ice was up to 655,000 km2. More than 110 glaciers and permafrost in Montana have disappeared in the last 100 years .

- Glaciers will almost disappear from the Alps in 2050 (if the melting is maintained today). In the summer of 2002, a 3.5 million ton ice block split off, causing flooding from the Mali mountains on top of the Russian Capt. Since 1991-2004, the number of glaciers melted in Europe twice that of 30 years ago (1961-1990) .

- World sea level monitoring data shows that the average increase in the past 50-100 years is 1.8mm / year. In the past 12 years, NASA satellite measurements show that the rising trend of the sea is increasing rapidly. The average increase over the past 12 years is 3mm / year.

Scientists around the world almost unanimously affirmed the events as well as the development trend of the events mentioned above. However, when discussing the causes and forecasts for the future to come, there are some more or less explanations.

The permafrost melted into the ocean as well as the increase in water volume due to the warming of the atmosphere is the cause of the increase in ocean water level (according to the calculations of the scientists, the effect of these two factors is approximately the same ). The permafrost is also caused by the warming of the earth's surface temperature. However, due to what causes the surface temperature of the earth to rise, even increase rapidly?

The first type of opinion , researched by the vast majority of scientists, indicates the relationship between increasing the surface temperature of the globe and the increase in CO ₂ and signaling emissions. Greenhouse response caused by human activity in the earth's atmosphere. This cause is responsible for 90% or even 99% of the increase in the temperature of the earth's surface being alarmed.

The second type of opinion , less, although admitting the problem of increasing temperature due to greenhouse effect, said that the level of impact of artificial emissions problem is not too serious. The phenomenon of global surface temperature warming and cooling is a natural phenomenon that occurs cyclically in the history of Earth's formation and development.

I think that Vietnamese scientists can and should be involved in the study of this important issue. Clearly, the relationship between the increase in CO ₂ and human-induced greenhouse gas emissions with the increase in the earth's surface temperature has been demonstrated by centuries of data. and especially in recent decades.

The surface temperature of the earth is obtained by absorbing heat from the sun and receiving its own heat flow from the inside of the earth. The presence of an amount of CO ₂ needed in the atmosphere which is the armor plate prevents heat radiation (infrared radiation) from the earth.

Escape to the vast, cold universe. Without it, the ground would not have a regulated temperature for the growth and development of life. Studies, increasingly applying modern technologies, tell us that during the millennium before the industrial revolution, the atmospheric CO ₂ content was still balanced at 280 parts per million (ppm). . However, from the early nineteenth century until now, atmospheric CO ₂ content increased rapidly and continuously to 360 ppm.

Monitoring data for the last four decades show that every decade, atmospheric CO ₂ content increases by 4%. In other words, the house gas effect caused by carbon dioxide is excessive, causing a rapid rise in the surface temperature of the earth, which has many consequences as mentioned above. I think that the facts and explanations have been raised to be convincing. Unfortunately, until now, the United States is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases (more than 30% of total industrial emissions) has not ratified the Kyoto Protocol.

On the other hand, I think it is impossible and not the opposite between the two interpretations. It is necessary to take into account the movement of the earth itself, the escape of heat from the inside of the earth (which has a very high temperature up to thousands of degrees Celsius) to the surface of the earth. Geologists all over the world understand this process.

In the distant history hundreds and thousands of million years of the earth has experienced intense tectonic changes with energy exchange - the giant temperature between the lava layers inside and the lithosphere, hydrosphere, the atmosphere on the face: make the content flow and spray out; making, splitting, pushing, turning continents and continents; Disappearing ancient oceans, new ocean appearances; create high mountains, deep gorges in the ocean and on the continent, etc.

Near the most recent day, the Fourth Century (from five million years to now) is considered a relatively quiet period but the movements of the earth have also experienced many periods of great fluctuations in the climate of the earth's surface. From 1.6 million years up to now, there have been 5-6 major fluctuations.

These are the glacial periods that followed lower sea levels (backward seas) and periods of glacial ice (melting ice) that lead to rising sea levels (transgression sea). At the ice ages the temperature of the earth's surface is cold.

At times the ice surface temperature of the earth is intertwined between humid and dry. In those periods, the amplitude of fluctuation of sea level (rising and falling) reached tens, hundreds of meters. Each cycle lasts tens of thousands, ten thousand years. Each such cycle is also divided into shorter periods with a duration of several hundred years to thousands of years with a sea level fluctuation range of 2-3 meters or more. The cycles of fluctuations are not constant, but there are periods of rest or mutation.

Vietnam and many countries in Southeast Asia with their geographical location, are not regions with permafrost, both in the present and the past, but are also affected by glacial periods. ice with traces of backward sea, progressive sea, and large climate fluctuations is quite global.

In the twentieth century, especially in the second half of the twentieth century, a series of research works of Vietnamese and regional and international scientists in many fields, especially geology and archeology. studying, oceanography, paleontology . about the Fourth Century has made many important conclusions about the above issues. But the remarkable conclusion is:

- The last glacial period of the Earth in the Ky Quaternary - ice age Uc 2 (Wurm 2) peaked about 18,000 years ago. At that time, the sea retreated far to the East Sea. The trail of the coastline at that time was located at a depth of 100-120m above the current sea level on the continental shelf. At that time the entire Gulf of Tonkin and more Sunda (connecting Southern Vietnam with Indonesia), the Gulf of Thailand was still inland.

- The period of the largest ice time near today (Flandrian transgression period) took place about 6,000 - 4,000 years ago. At this time, the sea level rose 4 - 5 m above the current sea level. At that time, Halong Bay and the Gulf of Thailand were flooded like today.

The sea also encroached and covered almost the entire delta of the Red River and Mekong River as well as the deltas of the central coastal rivers of Vietnam. These plains as we can see today are only formed and are occupied by humans, gradually exploiting when the sea recedes from about 4,500 years to now.

-The detailed research documents on geology and archeology also said that from 4,000 years ago to now, the general trend is backward sea but there are still some cycles of advancing and reversing with the amplitude of ink fluctuation. 2 - 3 m sea water about 3,000 years ago, before 2,000 years, close before and after the AD. In the period from 1,000 to 1,200 years after the year of AD, the whole region is in the process of advancing the sea.

- There is a period of signs of sudden sea level rise that prehistoric residents have to move their habitat to unusual areas, especially at the interval of the new post-stone period to the metal at the edge of the North Delta. The Ma River Delta and plain, along the coast as well as on the Mekong Delta.

The above briefings show that if the sea cycle progresses, the sea recedes with a time limit of about 800-1,000 years, we are currently at the end of the modern sea-going cycle, not excluding speed. degree will be quick or mutant.

Thus, the rising sea level in the general cycle of the sea plus the rapid impact caused by the greenhouse effect only makes us more aware of the problem, not vice versa. again. Whatever the cause, being aware of the plan to respond to the existence and sustainable development of each nation as well as all of humanity is what people can and must do.

(There's more)

Tran Duc Luong
The co-editor of Vietnam geological map rate of 1 / 500,000, Ho Chi Minh award;Former President of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam