2020: Two million vehicles run on hydrogen?

According to a report by the National Research Council commissioned by the US Congress, the transition to using hydrogen-powered vehicles will reduce the lack of dependence on petrol and carbon dioxide emissions.

But creating hydrogen-powered cars that are competitive in the market is not easy. While advances in energy cells or hydrogen production technology over the past few years have been impressive, there are still many challenges to overcome.

The cost for vehicles is very high. The United States currently lacks the infrastructure to produce and widely distribute hydrogen to customers. Those obstacles can be overcome if they receive support from research, technology and strong commitment from automobile manufacturers, as well as the federal government.

Light vehicles - such as cars, utility vehicles (SUVs - Sport Utility Vehicles), and small trucks - use up to 44% of the oil consumed in the United States and emit 22% of carbon dioxide . Concerns about climate change, oil imports or recent petrol price hikes have spurred research on alternative fuels. In 2003, President Bush announced a $ 1.2 billion support to study boosting hydrogen production technology and energy cell vehicles. These media are powered by chemical reactions that occur between hydrogen and oxygen while only emitting water and heat.

The council estimated the maximum number of hydrogen vehicles will appear on the streets in the coming decades. They determined that the actual technical goal was met, customers who wanted to own hydrogen-powered vehicles and government policies were issued to help convert from using oil to hydrogen energy. The results from that show that the prospect of good potential is no longer a prediction.

The rear part of a car uses hydrogen energy cells.By 2023, the total cost of energy-efficient vehicles, including hydrogen energy costs during the life of a vehicle, could be competitive with conventional cars. .(Photo: iStockphoto / Gene Chutka)

According to the council, it took many years before light hydrogen vehicles had a relative position despite rapid technological advances. The production of hydrogen vehicles can achieve a significant increase in 2015. At this stage, their cost, despite a rapid decline, still needs to be heavily supported by customers.The maximum estimated number of hydrogen vehicles in 2020 is 2 million. By 2023, the total cost of transport vehicles operating on energy cells, including the cost of hydrogen energy used throughout the life of the vehicle, could be competitive with conventional vehicles. At that time, the number of vehicles using hydrogen on the street will increase rapidly, reaching about 60 million by 2035 and 200 million by 2050.

The council also calculated investment, both public and private, needed to conduct a complete conversion from oil to hydrogen fuel. Costs have taken into account research and development, use of facilities as well as infrastructure construction. The government should support by way of effective policies as well as financial aid at least until 2023. The government needs to support $ 55 billion from 2008 to 2023, private industry facilities are expected to be first. $ 145 billion in the same period. When putting these numbers into practice, government subsidies for ethanol energy will increase to $ 15 billion per year by 2020.

The transition to hydrogen energy will not have a major impact on the use of oil or greenhouse gas emissions until hydrogen-powered vehicles occupy a relative market share. If they dominate the market, both problems will be solved. Although the overall effect on greenhouse gas emissions will depend on how hydrogen is produced. The Council compared the reduction to the level achieved by improving the energy efficiency of conventional or achieved means of shifting to biofuels. Because they can all be made faster, both of these options work to reduce oil use and greenhouse gas emissions faster than hydrogen. But until about 2040, hydrogen will become more efficient. The most effective reduction will happen if conventional fuel-powered vehicles, biofuels and hydrogen fuel are bought at the same time, not as competing products. . This category method, if compared with government policies to reduce the use of oil and low carbon energy, can reduce greenhouse gas emissions from cars and trucks to below 20% as currently Now, even nearly reduce the demand for oil for vehicles by 2050.

The research was funded by the US Department of Energy, the National Academy of Sciences, the National Technical Institute, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council is a nonprofit agency that provides advice on health, technology and science policies in the form of a parliamentary charter. The National Research Council is the main executive body of the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Technology. The council's report is titled "Transitions To Alternative Transportation Technologies: A Focus On Hydrogen." (roughly translated as 'The transition to alternative transport technology: Taking hydrogen as the focus'.