After El Nino, it's La Nina again: 13 storms predicted in the East Sea, all at the end of the year?

One of the main causes of record-breaking global temperatures in 2023 - El Nino - is gone, and its opposite, La Nina, is also on the horizon.

The US Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said there is a 55% chance of La Nina developing from June to August and a 77% chance of occurring from September to November this year 2024.

The hot phase suddenly turns cold: A sign of a fierce storm season?

This year, weather forecasters say, a rapid transition to La Nina is expected. After a super El Nino 2023 - 2024, the ocean is experiencing conditions to switch to a cold phase (La Nina) quite quickly. How long La Nina 2024 will last is still an open question.

"This cycle tends to fluctuate from extreme to extreme on average every 3 to 7 years, but while El Nino tends to be short-lived (like El Nino 2023 - 2024) La Nina It could last 2 years or longer " - said Pedro DiNezio, a scientist at the University of Colorado (USA).

CNN quoted meteorological experts as saying that La Nina creates opposite weather patterns to El Nino. And a quicker transition to La Nina could have more impact on the upcoming hurricane season, which begins in June and typically peaks in September each year.

So what is the impact of La Nina on a global scale?

La Nina and the 2024 hurricane season in the Pacific

The 2024 Pacific hurricane season is fast approaching with an official start date of May 15 in the eastern Pacific and June 1 in the central Pacific.

As of early May 2024, no tropical cyclones have developed in the Pacific so far this year.

A key factor to consider for the 2024 hurricane season is the ongoing shift in El Nino to La Nina, which will have a major impact on the number of tropical cyclones that develop in the east and west. Northwest Pacific over the next 6 months.

The possibility of La Nina developing at the peak of the 2024 Pacific hurricane season will have a major impact on the number of tropical cyclones. In a typical La Nina pattern, tropical cyclone development is also suppressed in the central Pacific and much of the western Pacific, with the exception of the South China Sea.

Explaining this, a meteorological expert from the General Department of Hydrometeorology of Vietnam said: The atmospheric state when switching from El Nino to La Nina combined with climate change will continue to increase the impact of climate change. increased extremism. Therefore, the second half of 2024 will have more complicated natural disasters including heat, drought, saltwater, thunderstorms and hail than normal.

This expert added that from now until the end of the year, the East Sea will have about 11-13 storms, of which 5-7 will impact on land.

From now until the end of the year, the East Sea will have about 11-13 storms. (Illustration).

The National Center for Hydrometeorological Forecasting predicts that from July to December 2024, the number of storms and tropical depressions (ATND) operating in the East Sea region, as well as affecting the mainland, is likely to be at a low level. approximately compared to the average of many years; and is likely to focus heavily on the second half of the storm season.

In particular, from July to September 2024, storms and tropical depression will affect the Northern provinces , from September to December 2024, it will affect the Central provinces and the Southern region .

The Center warns that in the second half of 2024, be wary of strong winds and large waves at sea due to the impact of storms/tropical winds and the southwest monsoon in the middle and southern waters of the East Sea and cold air from November to December. /2024 in the East Sea region has the potential to affect activities in the seas.

In addition, the phenomenon of thunderstorms, tornadoes, lightning, and hail will negatively affect agricultural production activities and people's daily activities in affected areas.

La Nina makes the Atlantic hurricane season more intense

Temperatures in the tropical Pacific also control wind shear across much of the Atlantic.

Wind shear is the difference in wind speed at different altitudes or directions. Hurricanes have more difficulty maintaining their mast structure when exposed to strong wind shear.

Meanwhile, La Nina creates less wind shear, eliminating the ability to suppress storms. That's not good news for people living in storm-prone areas like Florida, USA. During the 2020-2021 La Nina, the Atlantic saw a record 30 tropical storms and 14 hurricanes, and in 2021 there were 21 tropical storms and seven hurricanes.

Forecasters have warned that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season could rival 2021, largely due to La Niña.

The tropical Atlantic has also been exceptionally warm, with record-breaking sea surface temperatures for more than a year. That warmth affects the atmosphere, causing more atmospheric movements over the Atlantic Ocean, creating hurricanes.

La Nina impacts throughout the Southern Hemisphere

The impact of El Nino and La Nina is almost a mirror image in the Southern Hemisphere. That means this is the area most affected by these two phenomena.

Chile and Argentina tend to experience more frequent droughts during La Niña periods, while the Amazon receives more rain.

Australia suffered severe flooding during the 2020-2021 La Nina.

La Nina also creates favorable conditions for the Indian monsoon, meaning more above-average rainfall. However, the effects do not occur immediately. In South Asia, for example, changes tend to appear a few months after La Nina officially appears.

The possibility of La Nina developing at the peak of the 2024 Pacific storm season. (Illustration).

In eastern Africa, La Nina has had a devastating impact, where vulnerable communities are suffering from prolonged drought.

Does climate change affect the impact of La Nina?

El Nino and La Nina are currently occurring due to the effects of global warming. That could worsen temperatures, as the world will see in 2023, and rainfall could rise above normal levels.

Since the summer of 2023, the world has had 10 consecutive months of record-breaking global temperatures. Much of that warmth comes from the oceans, which are still at record high temperatures.

La Nina may cool things a bit, but greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming are still increasing. So while fluctuations between El Nino and La Nina can cause short-term temperature changes, the overall trend is that the world is still warming.