Shocking forecast: Artificial intelligence will outpace people for only 45 years

A new study shows that, in less than 50 years, artificial intelligence (AI) will be able to defeat people at all tasks.

And in the next 10 years alone, researchers find that AI will outperform people in language translation, truck driving, and even writing high school essays - and even researchers Research also predicts computers can write bestsellers in 2049.

In a new study, researchers from the Future Institute of Humanity at Oxford University, Yale University, and the AI ​​Impacts surveyed 352 machine learning experts to predict AI progress. in the next few decades.

Experts are asked about the timing of specific abilities and occupations, as well as their predictions about when AI will become higher than humans in all tasks - and social implications. .

Researchers predict that machines will outperform humans in translating languages ​​by 2024, writing high school essays in 2026, driving trucks in 2027, and retailing. in 2031.

Until 2049, they will be able to write a best-selling book, and by 2053, they will work as surgeons.

According to researchers, having 50% of artificial intelligence opportunities will outperform people in all tasks in just 45 years.

Artificial intelligence is rapidly improving its capabilities.

And, according to the same ability, they say that machines can handle all human affairs for 120 years.

Some say this may even happen sooner.

Artificial intelligence is rapidly improving its capabilities, and is increasingly demonstrating capabilities in the dominant human fields.

For example, the Google-owned AlphaGo computer program, recently defeated the world's top player in Go game.

After overcoming people, the program is currently "retiring".

While AI can benefit society in many ways, researchers also say machines will offer a new set of challenges.

"Advances in artificial intelligence will have enormous social consequences , " the authors write.

Self-driving technology can replace millions of driving jobs in the next decade.

In addition to possible unemployment, the transition will bring new challenges, such as rebuilding infrastructure, protecting network security, and adjusting laws and regulations.

"New challenges, both for AI developers and policy makers, will also emerge from applications in law enforcement, military technology and marketing."

In the survey, the researchers also determined the probability of an "extremely bad" result , such as human extinction as a result of bird flu, only 5%.